过滤泡沫、回声室和强化：追踪选举数据中的民粹主义
Filter Bubbles, Echo Chambers, and Reinforcement: Tracing Populism in Election Data
摘要：
我们提出了一个新的模型的回声室，过滤器气泡，并加强选举结果的影响。我们的模型扩展了众所周知的选民模型与狂热者，包括加固。我们分析了该模型的行为，确定不变的措施，并表明，强化可能1）改变投票的分布相比，选民模型，和2）导致相变。我们测试了具有强化的模型是否比在美国总统选举，英国脱欧公投以及法国，荷兰和德国议会选举的选举数据中更适合。我们发现在许多情况下，民粹主义政党和候选人可以通过高水平的强化来明确识别。此外，我们发现相变预测的模型回到数据。最后，我们讨论了我们的研究结果的影响和相关性，以及现代社会中强化行为的可能起源。
英文摘要：
We present a novel model for the effect of echo chambers, filter bubbles, and reinforcement on election results. Our model extends the well known voter model with zealots to include reinforcement. We analyze the behaviour of the model, determine the invariant measure, and show that reinforcement may 1) shift the distribution of votes compared to the voter model, and 2) lead to phase transitions. We test whether the model with reinforcement fit better than under its absence in election data from US presidential elections, the Brexit referendum, and parliamentary elections in France, The Netherlands, and Germany. We find in many cases that populist parties and candidates can be clearly identified by a high level of reinforcement. Furthermore, we find the phase transition predicted by the model back in data. We finally discuss the implications and relevance of our findings and possible origins of the reinforcement behaviour in modern societies.
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