从气候到商品生产预测和风险管理的大数据链接
Big Data links from Climate to Commodity Production Forecasts and Risk Management
摘要：
冷冻浓缩橙汁（FCOJ）是在国际商品交易所交易的商品。FCOJ期货价格波动很大，因为世界上的橙子生产集中在少数几个地方，这导致对天气和疾病的极端敏感性。在美国生产的大部分橙子来自佛罗里达州。美国农业部（USDA）在10月至7月每个月的第二周发布橙子产量预测。特别是10月份的预测似乎影响了冷冻浓缩橙汁价格的波动。我们评估了美国农业部10月份预测的方向性和误差幅度的预测如何影响多个FCOJ市场参与者的决策过程，以及预测的“生产不确定性”是否可以通过纳入其他气候变量来减少。开发的模型开辟了机会，评估美国农业部生产预测误差的概率预测对不同FCOJ利益相关者的交易决策的应用，并可能考虑将气候预测纳入美国农业部的预测。
英文摘要：
Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) is a commodity traded in the International Commodity Exchange. The FCOJ future price volatility is high because the world's orange production is concentrated in a few places, which results in extreme sensitivity to weather and disease. Most of the oranges produced in the United States are from Florida. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) issues orange production forecasts on the second week of each month from October to July. The October forecast in particular seems to affect FCOJ price volatility. We assess how a prediction of the directionality and magnitude of the error of the USDA October forecast could affect the decision making process of multiple FCOJ market participants, and if the "production uncertainty" of the forecast could be reduced by incorporating other climate variables. The models developed open up the opportunity to assess the application of the resulting probabilistic forecasts of the USDA production forecast error on the trading decisions of the different FCOJ stakeholders, and to perhaps consider the inclusion of climate predictors in the USDA forecast.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
