基于概率预测模型的预警系统减少高速公路分流口交通延误
Traffic Delay Reduction at Highway Diverges Using an Advance Warning System Based on a Probabilistic Prediction Model
摘要：
本文提出了一种基于概率预测模型的车载车辆预警系统，该系统可以为车辆提供何时变道以及时到达高速公路分岔口的建议。该系统基于一个模型，该模型估计使用一个或多个车道变化在道路上达到目标状态的概率。该估计基于几个与交通相关的参数，例如车辆间车头时距的分布以及与驾驶员相关的参数，例如车道变换持续时间。对于即将到来的分叉，预警系统使用该模型连续计算到达它的概率，并在概率低于某个阈值时建议驾驶员改变车道。为了评估所提出的系统在减少高速公路分流处的交通延误方面的性能，它被用于一段四车道高速公路上，以建议车辆在何时改变车道。结果表明，使用该系统减少平均延误高达6%，最大延误高达16%，取决于交通流量和车辆的比例采取出口匝道。
英文摘要：
This paper presents an on-board advance warning system for vehicles based on a probabilistic prediction model that advises them on when to change lanes to reach a highway diverge on time. The system is based on a model that estimates the probability of reaching a goal state on the road using one or multiple lane changes. This estimate is based on several traffic-related parameters such as the distribution of inter-vehicle headway distances as well as driver-related parameters like lane change duration. For an upcoming diverge, the advance warning system uses the model to continuously calculate the probability of reaching it and advise the driver to change lanes when the probability dips below a certain threshold. To evaluate the performance of the proposed system in reducing traffic delay at highway diverges, it was used on a segment of a four-lane highway to advise vehicles taking an off-ramp on when to change lanes. Results show that using the proposed system reduces average delay up to 6% and maximum delay up to 16%, depending on traffic flow and the ratio of vehicles taking the off-ramp.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
