何时何地：估计外来有害生物和病原体的传入日期和地点
When and where: estimating the date and location of introduction for exotic pests and pathogens
摘要：
在一种新的疾病爆发或外来有害生物入侵期间的一个基本问题是：它是在什么地点和日期首次引入的？有了这些信息，未来的引进可以预期，也许可以避免。点过程模型通常用于绘制物种分布和疾病发生的地图。如果知道引种的时间和地点，那么点过程模型可以用来绘制和理解影响引种的因素;然而，很少直接观察引种的过程。我们建议嵌入一个点过程中的分层贝叶斯模型通常用于了解入侵的时空动态。在分层贝叶斯模型中包括点过程使得能够从过程的间接观察（例如物种或疾病发生记录）推断引入的位置和日期。我们使用收集的疾病监测数据来说明我们的方法，以监测白鼻综合征，这是一种威胁许多北美蝙蝠物种的真菌疾病。我们使用我们的模型和监测数据来估计病原体引入美国的位置和日期。最后，我们将我们模型的预测与最先进的基于回归的统计和机器学习方法的预测进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，导致白鼻综合征的病原体最有可能在首次检测前4年引入美国，但这一估计存在中等程度的不确定性。引入的位置可能是第一次发现的位置以东510公里，但我们的研究结果表明，有一个相对较高的概率，第一次检测的位置可能是引入的位置。
英文摘要：
A fundamental question during the outbreak of a novel disease or invasion of an exotic pest is: At what location and date was it first introduced? With this information, future introductions can be anticipated and perhaps avoided. Point process models are commonly used for mapping species distribution and disease occurrence. If the time and location of introductions were known, then point process models could be used to map and understand the factors that influence introductions; however, rarely is the process of introduction directly observed. We propose embedding a point process within hierarchical Bayesian models commonly used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of invasion. Including a point process within a hierarchical Bayesian model enables inference regarding the location and date of introduction from indirect observation of the process such as species or disease occurrence records. We illustrate our approach using disease surveillance data collected to monitor white-nose syndrome, which is a fungal disease that threatens many North American species of bats. We use our model and surveillance data to estimate the location and date that the pathogen was introduced into the United States. Finally, we compare forecasts from our model to forecasts obtained from state-of-the-art regression-based statistical and machine learning methods. Our results show that the pathogen causing white-nose syndrome was most likely introduced into the United States 4 years prior to the first detection, but there is a moderate level of uncertainty in this estimate. The location of introduction could be up to 510 km east of the location of first discovery, but our results indicate that there is a relatively high probability the location of first detection could be the location of introduction.
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