电网对GIC敏感性的概率分析
Probabilistic Analysis of Power Network Susceptibility to GICs
摘要：
随着对电网的依赖在上个世纪的增加，地磁感应电流（GIC）的损害风险已成为公用事业的关注。GIC建模的当前技术水平需要大量的地球物理建模和理论推导的网络响应，但经验验证有限。在这项工作中，我们引入了测量的地磁场和GIC之间的概率工程步骤，而不需要有关电力系统拓扑结构或地面电导率分布的数据。由此产生的经验合奏被用来分析TVA网络（美国东南部）的峰值和累积曝光5中度到强烈的磁暴。多个节点根据敏感性进行排名，并将总TVA网络的测量响应进一步校准到现有的极值模型。提出的概率工程步骤可以补充现有的方法，特别是对现有的Transformers和电力系统的风险评估有用。
英文摘要：
As reliance on power networks has increased over the last century, the risk of damage from geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) has become a concern to utilities. The current state of the art in GIC modelling requires significant geophysical modelling and a theoretically derived network response, but has limited empirical validation. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic engineering step between the measured geomagnetic field and GICs, without needing data about the power system topology or the ground conductivity profiles. The resulting empirical ensembles are used to analyse the TVA network (south-eastern USA) in terms of peak and cumulative exposure to 5 moderate to intense geomagnetic storms. Multiple nodes are ranked according to susceptibility and the measured response of the total TVA network is further calibrated to existing extreme value models. The probabilistic engineering step presented can complement present approaches, being particularly useful for risk assessment of existing transformers and power systems.
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