极端沿海海平面频率增加的证据
Evidence for increasing frequency of extreme coastal sea levels
摘要：
极端海平面（ESL）的预测对于管理沿海风险至关重要，但由于深度不确定性而变得复杂。一个关键的不确定性是用于估计沿海灾害的模型结构的选择。模型结构选择的差异有助于估计沿海灾害的不确定性，因此，重要的是要描述模型结构选择如何影响ESL的估计。在这里，我们提出了一个收集的36 ESL数据集，从验潮站沿美国东部和墨西哥湾沿岸。数据处理使用年度块极大值和峰值超过阈值的方法来模拟极端的分布。我们使用这些数据集，以适应一套潜在的非平稳极值模型，通过协变ESL统计与多个气候变量。我们展示了如何利用这些数据集来探究沿海灾害的深层不确定性。对于这里考虑的所有模型和网站，我们发现，占沿海极端海平面的频率变化提供了一个更好的拟合比使用一个固定的极值模型。
英文摘要：
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model structural choices contribute to uncertainty in estimated coastal hazard, so it is important to characterize how model structural choice affects estimates of ESL. Here, we present a collection of 36 ESL data sets, from tide gauge stations along the United States East and Gulf Coasts. The data are processed using both annual block maxima and peaks-over-thresholds approaches for modeling distributions of extremes. We use these data sets to fit a suite of potentially nonstationary extreme value models by covarying the ESL statistics with multiple climate variables. We demonstrate how this data set enables inquiry into deep uncertainty surrounding coastal hazards. For all of the models and sites considered here, we find that accounting for changes in the frequency of coastal extreme sea levels provides a better fit than using a stationary extreme value model.
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