In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of the data by means of parametric bootstrap and a perturbation of the prior. We derive conditions under which any optimization steps of the particles makes the associated distribution reduce its divergence to the posterior over model parameters. Such conditions do not require any particular form for the approximation and they are purely geometrical, giving insights on the behavior of the ensemble on a number of interesting models such as Neural Networks with ReLU activations. Experiments confirm that ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference; the theoretical developments in the paper seek to explain this behavior.
In this work we perform outlier detection using ensembles of neural networks obtained by variational approximation of the posterior in a Bayesian neural network setting. The variational parameters are obtained by sampling from the true posterior by gradient descent. We show our outlier detection results are comparable to those obtained using other efficient ensembling methods.
Two main obstacles preventing the widespread adoption of variational Bayesian neural networks are the high parameter overhead that makes them infeasible on large networks, and the difficulty of implementation, which can be thought of as "programming overhead." MC dropout [Gal and Ghahramani, 2016] is popular because it sidesteps these obstacles. Nevertheless, dropout is often harmful to model performance when used in networks with batch normalization layers [Li et al., 2018], which are an indispensable part of modern neural networks. We construct a general variational family for ensemble-based…
ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Humboldt University of Berlin（柏林洪堡大学）
Ensembles of deep neural networks have achieved great success recently, but they do not offer a proper Bayesian justification. Moreover, while they allow for averaging of predictions over several hypotheses, they do not provide any guarantees for their diversity, leading to redundant solutions in function space. In contrast, particle-based inference methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer a Bayesian framework, but rely on the choice of a kernel to measure the similarity between ensemble members. In this work, we study different SVGD methods operating in the weight spa…
Deep ensembles have been empirically shown to be a promising approach for improving accuracy, uncertainty and out-of-distribution robustness of deep learning models. While deep ensembles were theoretically motivated by the bootstrap, non-bootstrap ensembles trained with just random initialization also perform well in practice, which suggests that there could be other explanations for why deep ensembles work well. Bayesian neural networks, which learn distributions over the parameters of the network, are theoretically well-motivated by Bayesian principles, but do not perform as well as deep ens…
Probabilistic graphical models are graphical representations of probability distributions. Graphical models have applications in many fields including biology, social sciences, linguistic, neuroscience. In this paper, we propose directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) learning via bootstrap aggregating. The proposed procedure is named as DAGBag. Specifically, an ensemble of DAGs is first learned based on bootstrap resamples of the data and then an aggregated DAG is derived by minimizing the overall distance to the entire ensemble. A family of metrics based on the structural hamming distance is defined …
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）
We propose an affine-mapping based variational Ensemble Kalman filter for sequential Bayesian filtering problems with generic observation models. Specifically, the proposed method is formulated as to construct an affine mapping from the prior ensemble to the posterior one, and the affine mapping is computed via a variational Bayesian formulation, i.e., by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the transformed distribution through the affine mapping and the actual posterior. Some theoretical properties of resulting optimization problem are studied and a gradient descent scheme is pr…
University of Almería（阿尔梅里亚大学）；University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）
Virtually any model we use in machine learning to make predictions does not perfectly represent reality. So, most of the learning happens under model misspecification. In this work, we present a novel analysis of the generalization performance of Bayesian model averaging under model misspecification and i.i.d. data using a new family of second-order PAC-Bayes bounds. This analysis shows, in simple and intuitive terms, that Bayesian model averaging provides suboptimal generalization performance when the model is misspecified. In consequence, we provide strong theoretical arguments showing that …
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that BET adapts to data heterogeneity and accurately estimates each component. Compared with the bootstrap-aggregating approach, BET shows improved prediction performance with fewer trees. We develop an efficient estimating procedure with improved sampling strategies in both CART and m…
High-Dimensional Analysis of Bootstrap Ensemble Classifiers
Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab, France（华为诺亚实验室，法国）；SAMOVAR, Télécom SudParis Institut Polytechnique de Paris France（SAMOVAR，巴黎高等理工学院，法国）；Technology Innovation Institute, United Arab Emirates（技术创新研究所，阿联酋）；Chinese University of Hong Kong, China（香港中文大学，中国）；Fraunhofer HHI, Germany, Aalto University Finland（弗劳恩霍夫研究所，德国，艾尔沃斯大学，芬兰）
PAC-Bayesian algorithms and Gibbs posteriors are gaining popularity due to their robustness against model misspecification even when Bayesian inference is inconsistent. The PAC-Bayesian alpha-posterior is a generalization of the standard Bayes posterior which can be tempered with a parameter alpha to handle inconsistency. Data driven methods for tuning alpha have been proposed but are still few, and are often computationally heavy. Additionally, the adequacy of these methods in cases where we use variational approximations instead of exact alpha-posteriors is not clear. This narrows their usag…
Ensemble Kalman Filtering Meets Gaussian Process SSM for Non-Mean-Field and Online Inference
School of Science & Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）理工学院）；Future Network of Intelligence Institute（未来智能网络研究院）；Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data（深圳大数据研究院）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）；Nokia（诺基亚）
We evaluate the start-up of blind equalizers at critical working points, analyze the advantages and obstacles of commonly-used algorithms, and demonstrate how the recently-proposed variational autoencoder (VAE) based equalizers can improve bootstrapping.
Clustering procedures typically estimate which data points are clustered together, a quantity of primary importance in many analyses. Often used as a preliminary step for dimensionality reduction or to facilitate interpretation, finding robust and stable clusters is often crucial for appropriate for downstream analysis. In the present work, we consider Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models, a particularly popular set of Bayesian models for clustering due to their flexibility. Because of its complexity, the Bayesian posterior often cannot be computed exactly, and approximations must be employed. …
Particle-based variational inference offers a flexible way of approximating complex posterior distributions with a set of particles. In this paper we introduce a new particle-based variational inference method based on the theory of semi-discrete optimal transport. Instead of minimizing the KL divergence between the posterior and the variational approximation, we minimize a semi-discrete optimal transport divergence. The solution of the resulting optimal transport problem provides both a particle approximation and a set of optimal transportation densities that map each particle to a segment of…
In this paper, we introduce Deep Probabilistic Ensembles (DPEs), a scalable technique that uses a regularized ensemble to approximate a deep Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). We do so by incorporating a KL divergence penalty term into the training objective of an ensemble, derived from the evidence lower bound used in variational inference. We evaluate the uncertainty estimates obtained from our models for active learning on visual classification. Our approach steadily improves upon active learning baselines as the annotation budget is increased.
Variational inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces state-of-the-art results for latent time-series modeling. A body of recent work has focused on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its variants, e.g., forward filtering backward simulation (FFBSi). Although these studies have succeeded, serious problems remain in particle degeneracy and biased gradient estimators. In this paper, we propose Ensemble Kalman Variational Objective (EnKO), a hybrid method of VI and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), to infer state space models (SSMs). Our proposed method can efficiently ide…
University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学）；Seoul National University（首尔大学）；Tomocube Inc（Tomocube公司）；UNIST（蔚山科学技术院）
Bootstrapping has been a primary tool for ensemble and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and statistics. However, due to its nature of multiple training and resampling, bootstrapping deep neural networks is computationally burdensome; hence it has difficulties in practical application to the uncertainty estimation and related tasks. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we propose a novel approach called \emph{Neural Bootstrapper} (NeuBoots), which learns to generate bootstrapped neural networks through single model training. NeuBoots injects the bootstrap weights into the hi…
College of Information and Computer Science（信息与计算机科学学院）；University of Massachusetts（马萨诸塞大学）；Amherst, MA 01003（阿默斯特，马萨诸塞州 01003）
Variational inference is increasingly being addressed with stochastic optimization. In this setting, the gradient's variance plays a crucial role in the optimization procedure, since high variance gradients lead to poor convergence. A popular approach used to reduce gradient's variance involves the use of control variates. Despite the good results obtained, control variates developed for variational inference are typically looked at in isolation. In this paper we clarify the large number of control variates that are available by giving a systematic view of how they are derived. We also present…
It is proposed to use analogs of the forecast mean to generate an ensemble of perturbations for use in ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) or ensemble variational (EnVar) methods. A new method of constructing analogs using variational autoencoders (VAEs; a machine learning method) is proposed. The resulting analog methods using analogs from a catalog (AnEnOI), and using constructed analogs (cAnEnOI), are tested in the context of a multiscale Lorenz-`96 model, with standard EnOI and an ensemble square root filter for comparison. The use of analogs from a modestly-sized catalog is shown to imp…
In this article we propose a new supervised ensemble learning method called Data Shared Adaptive Bootstrap Aggregated (AdaBag) Lasso for capturing low dimensional useful features for word based sentiment analysis and mining problems. The literature on ensemble methods is very rich in both statistics and machine learning. The algorithm is a substantial upgrade of the Data Shared Lasso uplift algorithm. The most significant conceptual addition to the existing literature lies in the final selection of bag of predictors through a special bootstrap aggregation scheme. We apply the algorithm to one …
When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform nearly as well as an ideal infinite ensemble (trained on the same data). The purpose of the current paper is to develop a bootstrap method for solving this problem in the context of regression --- which complements our companion paper in the context of classification (Lopes 2019). In contrast to the classification setting, the current paper shows that theoretica…
Ensemble Visualization With Variational Autoencoder
Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center（北京大学健康科学中心医学技术研究所）；National Institute of Health Data Science, Peking University（北京大学健康数据科学国家研究院）；Center for Machine Learning Research, Peking University（北京大学机器学习研究中心）
The literature about history matching is vast and despite the impressive number of methods proposed and the significant progresses reported in the last decade, conditioning reservoir models to dynamic data is still a challenging task. Ensemble-based methods are among the most successful and efficient techniques currently available for history matching. These methods are usually able to achieve reasonable data matches, especially if an iterative formulation is employed. However, they sometimes fail to preserve the geological realism of the model, which is particularly evident in reservoir with …
University of Reading（雷丁大学）；Universidad Nacional del Nordeste（东北国立大学）；Colorado State University（科罗拉多州立大学）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）
Recently, some works have suggested methods to combine variational probabilistic inference with Monte Carlo sampling. One promising approach is via local optimal transport. In this approach, a gradient steepest descent method based on local optimal transport principles is formulated to transform deterministically point samples from an intermediate density to a posterior density. The local mappings that transform the intermediate densities are embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). This variational mapping method requires the evaluation of the log-posterior density gradient and …
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）
Using predictive models to identify patterns that can act as biomarkers for different neuropathoglogical conditions is becoming highly prevalent. In this paper, we consider the problem of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) classification where previous work has shown that it can be beneficial to incorporate a wide variety of meta features, such as socio-cultural traits, into predictive modeling. A graph-based approach naturally suits these scenarios, where a contextual graph captures traits that characterize a population, while the specific brain activity patterns are utilized as a multivariate si…
Class imbalance problems manifest in domains such as financial fraud detection or network intrusion analysis, where the prevalence of one class is much higher than another. Typically, practitioners are more interested in predicting the minority class than the majority class as the minority class may carry a higher misclassification cost. However, classifier performance deteriorates in the face of class imbalance as oftentimes classifiers may predict every point as the majority class. Methods for dealing with class imbalance include cost-sensitive learning or resampling techniques. In this pape…
KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）；Science for Life Laboratory（生命科学实验室）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
In variational inference (VI), the marginal log-likelihood is estimated using the standard evidence lower bound (ELBO), or improved versions as the importance weighted ELBO (IWELBO). We propose the multiple importance sampling ELBO (MISELBO), a \textit{versatile} yet \textit{simple} framework. MISELBO is applicable in both amortized and classical VI, and it uses ensembles, e.g., deep ensembles, of independently inferred variational approximations. As far as we are aware, the concept of deep ensembles in amortized VI has not previously been established. We prove that MISELBO provides a tighter …
Gradient-based approximate inference methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), provide simple and general-purpose inference engines for differentiable continuous distributions. However, existing forms of SVGD cannot be directly applied to discrete distributions. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a simple yet general framework that transforms discrete distributions to equivalent piecewise continuous distributions, on which the gradient-free SVGD is applied to perform efficient approximate inference. The empirical results show that our method outperforms traditional a…
Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学量子技术中心）；Department of Computer Science, National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学计算机科学系）
In recent studies on model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), incorporating uncertainty in forward dynamics is a state-of-the-art strategy to enhance learning performance, making MBRLs competitive to cutting-edge model free methods, especially in simulated robotics tasks. Probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) is a leading type of MBRL, which employs Bayesian inference to dynamics modeling and model predictive control (MPC) with stochastic optimization via the cross entropy method (CEM). In this paper, we propose a novel extension to the uncertainty-aware MBRL. Our main cont…
EDF R&D（法国电力集团研发中心）；European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation (CERFACS)（欧洲科学计算高级研究与培训中心）；French National Research Center (CNRS)（法国国家科学研究中心）；Université de Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics (LHSV)（圣维南水力学实验室）
Data assimilation (DA) is widely used to combine physical knowledge and observations. It is nowadays commonly used in geosciences to perform parametric calibration. In a context of climate change, old calibrations can not necessarily be used for new scenarios. This raises the question of DA computational cost, as costly physics-based numerical models need to be reanalyzed. Reduction and metamodelling represent therefore interesting perspectives, for example proposed in recent contributions as hybridization between ensemble and variational methods, to combine their advantages (efficiency, non-l…
1 Center for Intelligent Acoustics；School of Marine Science；Technology, Northwestern Polytechnical University, China 2 Research \& Development Institute of Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shenzhen, China
Recently, deep clustering (DPCL) based speaker-independent speech separation has drawn much attention, since it needs little speaker prior information. However, it still has much room of improvement, particularly in reverberant environments. If the training and test environments mismatch which is a common case, the embedding vectors produced by DPCL may contain much noise and many small variations. To deal with the problem, we propose a variant of DPCL, named DPCL++, by applying a recent unsupervised deep learning method---multilayer bootstrap networks(MBN)---to further reduce the noise and sm…
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are prone to overfitting and hence have high variance. Overfitted networks do not perform well for a new data instance. So instead of using a single DNN as classifier we propose an ensemble of seven independent DNN learners by varying only the input to these DNNs keeping their architecture and intrinsic properties same. To induce variety in the training input, for each of the seven DNNs, one-seventh of the data is deleted and replenished by bootstrap sampling from the remaining samples. We have proposed a novel technique for combining the prediction of the DNN learn…
The University of Nottingham Ningbo China（宁波诺丁汉大学）
This paper presents a novel ensemble framework to extract highly discriminative feature representation of image and its application for group-level happpiness intensity prediction in wild. In order to generate enough diversity of decisions, n convolutional neural networks are trained by bootstrapping the training set and extract n features for each image from them. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is then used to remember which network extracts better feature and generate the final feature representation for one individual image. Several group emotion models (GEM) are used to aggregate face fe…
Rowan University（罗文大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
Learning in uncertain, noisy, or adversarial environments is a challenging task for deep neural networks (DNNs). We propose a new theoretically grounded and efficient approach for robust learning that builds upon Bayesian estimation and Variational Inference. We formulate the problem of density propagation through layers of a DNN and solve it using an Ensemble Density Propagation (EnDP) scheme. The EnDP approach allows us to propagate moments of the variational probability distribution across the layers of a Bayesian DNN, enabling the estimation of the mean and covariance of the predictive dis…
The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；qBraid Co.（qBraid公司）
Random quantum circuits have been utilized in the contexts of quantum supremacy demonstrations, variational quantum algorithms for chemistry and machine learning, and blackhole information. The ability of random circuits to approximate any random unitaries has consequences on their complexity, expressibility, and trainability. To study this property of random circuits, we develop numerical protocols for estimating the frame potential, the distance between a given ensemble and the exact randomness. Our tensor-network-based algorithm has polynomial complexity for shallow circuits and is high-per…
