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arXiv 2006.03351physics.soc-phcs.LGstat.OT

Extracting Spatiotemporal Demand for Public Transit from Mobility Data

Delft University of Technology(代尔夫特理工大学);ETH Zürich(苏黎世联邦理工学院);University of Strathclyde(思克莱德大学);Universidade de Lisboa(里斯本大学)

Trivik Verma, Mikhail Sirenko, Itto Kornecki, Scott Cunningham, Nuno AM Araújo

英文摘要:

With people constantly migrating to different urban areas, our mobility needs for work, services and leisure are transforming rapidly. The changing urban demographics pose several challenges for the efficient management of transit services. To forecast transit demand, planners often resort to sociological investigations or modelling that are either difficult to obtain, inaccurate or outdated. How can we then estimate the variegated demand for mobility? We propose a simple method to identify the spatiotemporal demand for public transit in a city. Using a Gaussian mixture model, we decompose empirical ridership data into a set of temporal demand profiles representative of ridership over any given day. A case of approximately 4.6 million daily transit traces from the Greater London region reveals distinct demand profiles. We find that a weighted mixture of these profiles can generate any station traffic remarkably well, uncovering spatially concentric clusters of mobility needs. Our method of analysing the spatiotemporal geography of a city can be extended to other urban regions with different modes of public transit.

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