关于冠状病毒疫情和未报告病例的动态：智利病例
On the dynamics of the Coronavirus epidemic and the unreported cases: the Chilean case
摘要：
我们分析COVID-19疫情的动态时考虑了未报告病例的作用。在第一节中，我们处理一个非常缓慢的测试能力的框架后，我们转向最近介绍/实现的刘，Magal，Seydi和Webb的模型。首先，我们证明了相应常微分方程的一些基本结构结果，例如S（t）收敛到正极限。这些与经典SIR模型的曲线相似，尽管相应曲线的最大值不一定是唯一的。最后，我们实施的模型-但可变的传输率-在智利的情况下。一个关键参数调整（即未报告病例的比例）是通过使用死亡率的参数进行的。最后，我们得出几个结论和未来的研究路线。
英文摘要：
We analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic taking into account the role of the unreported cases. After a first section in which we deal with a framework of very slow test capacity, we turn to the model recently introduced/implemented by Liu, Magal, Seydi and Webb. First, we prove some basic structural results for the corresponding ODE, as for instance the convergence of S(t) to a positive limit. These are similar to those of the classical SIR model, although the maxima of the corresponding curves are not necessarily unique. Finally, we implement the model -- but with a variable transmission rate -- in the Chilean context. A key parameter adjustment (namely, the fraction of unreported cases) is done via an argument using mortality rates. We conclude with several conclusions and lines of future research.
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