通过精神气质的影响力：论声誉在网上审议中的说服力
Influence via Ethos: On the Persuasive Power of Reputation in Deliberation Online
摘要：
个人在线上的商议在形成推动投票、购买、捐赠和其他关键线下行为的意见方面发挥着关键作用。然而，通过说服在线审议意见改变的决定因素仍然在很大程度上未被探索。我们的研究考察了$\textit{ethos}$的说服力--个人的“声誉”--使用了一个为期7年的小组，该小组来自一个包含成功说服的明确指标的论证平台，共有超过100万场辩论。我们通过构建一个衡量过去辩论竞争的声誉工具，并通过在双重机器学习框架中使用语言神经模型控制非结构化论点文本，来确定声誉对说服力的因果影响。我们发现，一个人的声誉显着影响他们的说服率以上和超越的有效性，强度和介绍他们的论点。在我们的设置中，我们发现拥有10个额外的声誉点会导致成功说服的概率比平台平均值增加31%。我们还发现，声誉的影响是温和的参数内容的特点，在一个理论模型，属性的声誉的说服力启发式信息处理认知过载的方式相一致。我们讨论了促进公共和私人组织在线审议决策的平台的管理影响。
英文摘要：
Deliberation among individuals online plays a key role in shaping the opinions that drive votes, purchases, donations and other critical offline behavior. Yet, the determinants of opinion-change via persuasion in deliberation online remain largely unexplored. Our research examines the persuasive power of $\textit{ethos}$ -- an individual's "reputation" -- using a 7-year panel of over a million debates from an argumentation platform containing explicit indicators of successful persuasion. We identify the causal effect of reputation on persuasion by constructing an instrument for reputation from a measure of past debate competition, and by controlling for unstructured argument text using neural models of language in the double machine-learning framework. We find that an individual's reputation significantly impacts their persuasion rate above and beyond the validity, strength and presentation of their arguments. In our setting, we find that having 10 additional reputation points causes a 31% increase in the probability of successful persuasion over the platform average. We also find that the impact of reputation is moderated by characteristics of the argument content, in a manner consistent with a theoretical model that attributes the persuasive power of reputation to heuristic information-processing under cognitive overload. We discuss managerial implications for platforms that facilitate deliberative decision-making for public and private organizations online.
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