基于船迹的评估高估了人为气溶胶的冷却效应
Ship-track-based assessments overestimate the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosol
摘要：
人为气溶胶通过改变云量对层积云反射率的影响是气候预测中的一个主要不确定因素。本研究的重点是频繁发生的非降水层积云。在这种情况下，云量可以通过气溶胶增强云顶混合而减少。这种影响的气候相关性是有争议的，因为船舶废气似乎并没有产生显着的变化，这些云的数量。通过详细的数值模拟与卫星数据相比，一种新的分析，我们表明，从船舶跟踪研究的结果不能概括为估计人为气溶胶的气候强迫。我们特别发现，非降水层积云对气溶胶的辐射效应的船迹导出的灵敏度高估了它们的冷却效应高达200%。如果我们要限制层积云的气溶胶-云辐射强迫，就需要考虑这种抵消变暖效应。
英文摘要：
The effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the reflectivity of stratocumulus cloud decks through changes in cloud amount is a major uncertainty in climate projections. The focus of this study is the frequently occurring non-precipitating stratocumulus. In this regime, cloud amount can decrease through aerosol-enhanced cloud-top mixing. The climatological relevance of this effect is debated because ship exhaust does not appear to generate significant change in the amount of these clouds. Through a novel analysis of detailed numerical simulations in comparison to satellite data, we show that results from ship-track studies cannot be generalized to estimate the climatological forcing of anthropogenic aerosol. We specifically find that the ship-track-derived sensitivity of the radiative effect of non-precipitating stratocumulus to aerosol overestimates their cooling effect by up to 200%. This offsetting warming effect needs to be taken into account if we are to constrain the aerosol-cloud radiative forcing of stratocumulus.
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