旅游城市应对COVID-19的可持续和弹性战略：基于主体的方法
Sustainable and resilient strategies for touristic cities against COVID-19: an agent-based approach
摘要：
旅游城市将遭受COVID-19紧急情况，因为其对社区的经济影响。第一个紧急阶段涉及广泛关闭这些地区，以支持“社交距离”措施（即限制旅行;封锁（过度）人群聚集活动）。在第二阶段，个人的风险缓解策略（口罩）可以适当地与“社交距离”联系起来，以确保旅游城市重新向游客开放。模拟工具可支持对减轻风险措施的有效性进行评估，以寻找重新启动活动的最佳经济和社会条件。本工作修改了现有的基于Agent的模型，以估计病毒在旅游区的传播，包括游客和居民的行为，运动和病毒对他们的影响，根据概率的方法。根据国际卫生组织和先前通过实验数据进行的校准，合并了基于邻近度和基于确定时间的传染病传播规则。根据与病毒有关的情况（即最初感染者的百分比）评估游客的能力（作为“社会距离”措施）和其他战略（即戴口罩）的效果。一个理想化的情况下，代表一个重要的案例研究进行了分析，以证明工具的功能，并比较这些解决方案的有效性。结果表明，“社会距离”似乎在感染率最高的情况下更有效，尽管这是一种具有重要经济影响的极端措施。随着感染率的下降和个人保护措施（口罩）的占主导地位，这项措施（对社区）失去了充分的效力。该模型可被整合，以考虑与旅游相关的成果和城市空间和设施（例如文化/休闲建筑物）的时间表的其他经常性问题。
英文摘要：
Touristic cities will suffer from COVID-19 emergency because of its economic impact on their communities. The first emergency phases involved a wide closure of such areas to support "social distancing" measures (i.e. travels limitation; lockdown of (over)crowd-prone activities). In the second phase, individual's risk-mitigation strategies (facial masks) could be properly linked to "social distancing" to ensure re-opening touristic cities to visitors. Simulation tools could support the effectiveness evaluation of risk-mitigation measures to look for an economic and social optimum for activities restarting. This work modifies an existing Agent-Based Model to estimate the virus spreading in touristic areas, including tourists and residents' behaviours, movement and virus effects on them according to a probabilistic approach. Consolidated proximity-based and exposure-time-based contagion spreading rules are included according to international health organizations and previous calibration through experimental data. Effects of tourists' capacity (as "social distancing"-based measure) and other strategies (i.e. facial mask implementation) are evaluated depending on virus-related conditions (i.e. initial infector percentages). An idealized scenario representing a significant case study has been analysed to demonstrate the tool capabilities and compare the effectiveness of those solutions. Results show that "social distancing" seems to be more effective at the highest infectors' rates, although represents an extreme measure with important economic effects. This measure loses its full effectiveness (on the community) as the infectors' rate decreases and individuals' protection measures become predominant (facial masks). The model could be integrated to consider other recurring issues on tourist-related fruition and schedule of urban spaces and facilities (e.g. cultural/leisure buildings).
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
