2013-2019年阿根廷通货膨胀的宏观经济因素
Macroeconomic factors for inflation in Argentine 2013-2019
摘要：
本文的目的是探讨使用因子分析，以确定相关的宏观经济变量在推动通货膨胀的作用。通常影响通货膨胀的宏观经济预测因素是使用由主成分构造的少量因素来概括的。这使我们能够确定货币增长，通货膨胀预期和汇率在推动通货膨胀中的关键作用。然后，我们利用这些因素建立计量经济模型来预测通货膨胀。具体来说，我们使用单变量和多变量模型，如经典的自回归，因子模型和FAVAR模型。预测结果表明，模型中包含更多的经济信息优于基准。此外，为了检验通货膨胀对主要因素冲击的短期动态，还进行了因果检验和脉冲响应。
英文摘要：
The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of the Factor Analysis in order to identify the role of the relevant macroeconomic variables in driving the inflation. The Macroeconomic predictors that usually affect the inflation are summarized using a small number of factors constructed by the principal components. This allows us to identify the crucial role of money growth, inflation expectation and exchange rate in driving the inflation. Then we use this factors to build econometric models to forecast inflation. Specifically, we use univariate and multivariate models such as classical autoregressive, Factor models and FAVAR models. Results of forecasting suggest that models which incorporate more economic information outperform the benchmark. Furthermore, causality test and impulse response are performed in order to examine the short-run dynamics of inflation to shocks in the principal factors.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
