量化社会经济活动和天气对COVID-19流行病全球传播的影响
Quantifying socioeconomic activities and weather effects on the global spread of COVID-19 epidemic
摘要：
截至二零二零年四月，COVID-19已导致超过三百万人感染及超过二十万人死亡1。限制社会经济活动（SA）是政府为抗击病毒传播而采取的最多的缓解措施之一，尽管不同制度之间的程度差异很大2。本研究旨在量化SA和天气状况对全球范围内COVID-19传播的贡献。排除了不可观察的因素，包括医疗设施和其他控制政策（MOC）通过区域按时间固定effects 3，4，我们表明，限制SA有一个主要的贡献，降低生殖数量的18.3%，而天气条件，包括紫外线，相对湿度，和风解释了少量的变化。温度可能对透射率有非单调影响。我们进一步表明，在发达国家5和中国，SA效应更为明显，而天气效应则被显著淡化，这可能是因为人们倾向于在受控气候下大部分时间都呆在室内。我们最终估计，在中国、美国和欧洲，由于限制SA而减少的生殖数量和免于感染的人口分别为40，964、180，336和174，494。从1月下旬到4月中旬，除中国、澳大利亚和韩国外，所有地区由于限制SA而显示出免于感染的急剧上升趋势。特别是美国和欧洲，在分析的时间范围内，未感染病例的上升趋势更为陡峭，这表明过早重新开放经济的风险更大。
英文摘要：
The COVID-19 has caused more than three million infections and over two hundred thousand deaths by April 20201. Limiting socioeconomic activities (SA) is among the most adopted governmental mitigating efforts to combat the transmission of the virus, though the degree varies dramatically among different regimes2. This study aims to quantify the contribution from the SA and weather conditions to the transmission of COVID-19 at global scale. Ruling out the unobservable factors including medical facilities and other control policies (MOC) through region-by-time fixed effects3,4, we show that the limiting SA has a leading contribution to lower the reproductive number by 18.3%, while weather conditions, including ultraviolet, relative humidity, and wind explain a smaller amount of variation. Temperature might have a non-monotonic impact on the transmission. We further show that in developed countries5 and China, the SA effect is more pronounced whereas the weather effect is significantly downplayed possibly because people tend to stay indoors most of the time with a controlled climate. We finally estimate the reduced reproductive number and the population spared from infections due to restricting SA at 40,964, 180,336, 174,494, in China, United States, and Europe respectively. From late January to mid-April, all regions, except for China, Australia, and south Korea show a steep upward trend of spared infections due to restricting SA. US and Europe, in particular, show far steeper upward trends of spared infections in the analyzed timeframe, signaling a greater risk of reopening the economy too soon.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
