首页/论文/2005.09596

arXiv 2005.095962020-05-19physics.soc-phstat.ME

Spatial analysis and prediction of COVID-19 spread in South Africa after lockdown

Mohammad Arashi, Andriette Bekker, Mahdi Salehi, Sollie Millard, Barend Erasmus, Tanita Cronje, Mohammad Golpaygani

备注：: 16 pages, 9 Figures, 3 Tables

英文摘要：

What is the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa? This paper envisages assisting researchers and decision-makers in battling the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on South Africa. This paper focuses on the spread of the disease by applying heatmap retrieval of hotspot areas and spatial analysis is carried out using the Moran index. For capturing spatial autocorrelation between the provinces of South Africa, the adjacent, as well as the geographical distance measures, are used as a weight matrix for both absolute and relative counts. Furthermore, generalized logistic growth curve modeling is used for the prediction of the COVID-19 spread. We expect this data-driven modeling to provide some insights into hotspot identification and timeous action controlling the spread of the virus.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。

阅读原文

阅读 PDF ↗

arXiv 页面 ↗HTML 原文 ↗

本文内容

英文摘要相关论文

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。

继续探索

相关论文

Optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19: A South African case study

To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A predictive control approach is used to develop optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19. The strategies are then applied to South African data. The South African case is of interest as the South African government has defined five distinct levels of lockdown, which serves as a discrete control input. An epidemiological model for the s…

2020-11-13physics.soc-phq-bio.PE

Quantification of the South African Lockdown Regimes, for the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic, and the Levels of Immunity They Require to Work

This research quantifies the various South African lockdown regimes, for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in terms of the basic reproduction number, $r_0$. It further calculates the levels of immunity required for these selfsame lockdown regimes to begin to work and predicts perceived values, should infections have been underestimated by a factor of 10. The latter results are compelling. The first, level-5 lockdown was a valiant attempt to contain the highly infectious, SARS-CoV-2 virus, based on a limited knowledge. Its basic reproduction number ($r_0 = 1.93$) never came anywhere close to the require…

2020-09-01physics.soc-phq-bio.PE

PyPSA-ZA: Investment and operation co-optimization of integrating wind and solar in South Africa at high spatial and temporal detail

South Africa is in the fortunate position of having access to high-quality wind and solar resources promising energy production costs well below the ones projected for future installations of thermal generation; yet the feasibility of a low carbon energy system is still under scrutiny. This study introduces a spatially and temporally resolved techno-economic model co-optimising generation and transmission capacity investments and operation. 27 supply regions in South Africa are equipped with a year of time-series in hourly resolution based on the IRP2016 base-case assumptions. Eight different …

2017-10-30physics.soc-ph

Cross-country comparisons of scientific performance by focusing on post-apartheid South Africa

This paper examines the scientific performance of South Africa since 1994 (post-apartheid) until 2014 in comparisons with the rest of the world, utilizing relative indicator. It provides a view over current standing of South Africa in the scientific world as well as its temporal evolution after the apartheid. This study focuses on four major aspects of scientific performance, namely quantity, productivity, impact and quality, as the main attributes of scientific perfomance on national level. These are measured by re-based (relative) publication, publication per population or GDP, citations and…

2018-06-19cs.DLphysics.soc-ph

The stochastic nature of power-grid frequency in South Africa

In this work, we explore two mechanisms that explain non-Gaussian behaviour of power-grid frequency recordings in the South African grid. We make use of a Fokker-Planck approach to power-grid frequency that yields a direct relation between common model parameters such as inertia, damping, and noise amplitude and non-parametric estimations of the same directly from power-grid frequency recordings. We propose two explanations for the non-Gaussian leptokurtic distributions in South Africa: The first based on multiplicative noise in power-grid frequency recordings, which we observe in South Africa…

2022-11-10cs.SYeess.SYphysics.data-an

An epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19: A South African case study

An epidemiological model is developed for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. A variant of the classical compartmental SEIR model, called the SEIQRDP model, is used. As South Africa is still in the early phases of the global COVID-19 pandemic with the confirmed infectious cases not having peaked, the SEIQRDP model is first parameterized on data for Germany, Italy, and South Korea - countries for which the number of infectious cases are well past their peaks. Good fits are achieved with reasonable predictions of where the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases will …

2020-05-22physics.soc-phq-bio.PE

更多相关论文收起更多论文

Limited containment options of COVID-19 outbreak revealed by regional agent-based simulations for South Africa

COVID-19 has spread from China across Europe and the United States and has become a global pandemic. In countries of the Global South, due to often weaker socioeconomic options and health care systems, effective local countermeasures remain debated. We combine large-scale socioeconomic and traffic survey data with detailed agent-based simulations of local transportation to analyze COVID-19 spreading in a regional model for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality in South Africa under a range of countermeasure scenarios. The simulations indicate that any realistic containment strategy, including th…

2020-04-12physics.soc-phq-bio.PEq-bio.QM

Study of lockdown/testing mitigation strategies on stochastic SIR model and its comparison with South Korea, Germany and New York data

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This situation will fruitfully profit from the study in regards of the spread of the virus, assessing effective countermeasures to weight the impact of the adopted strategies. The standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is a very successful and widely used mathematical model for predicting the spread of an epidemic. We adopt the SIR model on a random …

2020-06-20physics.soc-phq-bio.PE

南非城乡家庭属性与接触模式的关系

Relationship between household attributes and contact patterns in urban and rural South Africa

研究通过分析南非城乡家庭接触模式，发现家庭类型和头性别影响互动模式，尤其在儿童照顾方面，为流行病模型提供了重要参考。

2026-03-04physics.soc-ph

Could Deficiencies in South African Data Be the Explanation for Its Early SARS-CoV-2 Peak?

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked very early in comparison to the thresholds predicted by an analysis of prior lockdown regimes. The most convenient explanation is that some, external factor changed the value of the basic reproduction number, $r_{\rm 0}$; and there certainly are arguments for this. Other factors could, nonetheless, have played a role. This research attempts to reconcile the observed peak with the thresholds predicted by lockdown regimes similar to the one in force at the time. It contemplates the effect of two, different, hypothetical errors in the data: The first is that the tru…

2021-02-19physics.soc-phq-bio.PEq-bio.QM

Diverse response of surface ozone to COVID-19 lockdown in China

Ozone (O$_{3}$) is a key oxidant and pollutant in the lower atmosphere. Significant increases in surface O$_{3}$ have been reported in many cities during the COVID-19 lockdown. Here we conduct comprehensive observation and modeling analyses of surface O$_{3}$ across China for periods before and during the lockdown. We find that daytime O$_{3}$ decreased in the subtropical south, in contrast to increases in most other regions. Meteorological changes and emission reductions both contributed to the O$_{3}$ changes, with a larger impact from the former especially in central China. The plunge in ni…

2021-06-07physics.ao-phphysics.soc-ph

Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: social distancing, food vulnerability and welfare response

We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with monthly local prices and real-time conflict data reported in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) from January 2015 until early May 2020. Lockdowns and recent welfare policies have been implemented in light of COVID-19, but in some contexts also likely in response to ongoing conflicts. To mitigate the potential risk of endogeneity, we us…

2020-06-18econ.EMphysics.soc-ph

Time-dependent and time-independent SIR models applied to the COVID-19 outbreak in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa

We consider the SIR epidemiological model applied to the evolution of COVID-19 with two approaches. In the first place we fit a global SIR model, with time delay, and constant parameters throughout the outbreak, including the contagion rate. The contention measures are reflected on an effective reduced susceptible population $N_{eff}$. In the second approach we consider a time-dependent contagion rate that reflects the contention measures either through a step by step fitting process or by following an exponential decay. In this last model the population is considered the one of the country $N…

2020-06-22physics.soc-phq-bio.PE

理解电力网络中频率和相角波动的复杂性

Understanding the complexity of frequency and phase angle fluctuations in power grids

本文通过超级统计建模方法，分析了电力网络中频率和相角波动的复杂性，揭示了市场驱动的功率波动对电网动态的影响，并展示了低维有效电网模型对南非数据的拟合能力。

2026-04-03physics.soc-ph

Impact of contamination factors on the COVID-19 evolution in Senegal

In this article, we perform an analysis of COVID-19 on one of the South Saharan countries (hot zone), the Senegal (West Africa). Many questions remain unanswered: why the African continent is not very contaminated compared to other continents. Factors of cross immunity, temperature, population density, youth, etc. are taken into account for an analysis of the contamination factors. Numerical simulations are carried out for a prediction over the coming week.

2020-06-29physics.soc-phq-bio.PE

基于复杂网络的成渝城市群PM2.5扩散对COVID-19封锁响应的时空演化

Spatiotemporal evolution of PM2.5 diffusion in Cheng-Yu urban agglomeration in response to COVID-19 lockdown using complex network

本文利用复杂网络方法研究成渝城市群在COVID-19封锁期间PM2.5扩散的时空演化，发现封锁使PM2.5溢出更集中、输入模式更脆弱而输出模式更具韧性，强调了区域联合控制的重要性。

2025-06-06cs.NAmath.NAphysics.soc-ph