通过针对高接触率个体停止SARS-CoV-2
Halting SARS-CoV-2 by Targeting High-Contact Individuals
摘要：
网络科学家提出，通过针对少数高度联系的个人进行干预，可以有效地阻止涉及人际传播的传染病。这一策略能否有效地对抗一种部分通过近距离接触传播的病毒，正如许多人认为的SARS-CoV-2？有效性主要取决于近距离接触人数的高度人与人之间的差异。我们分析了人口调查数据，结果表明，近距离接触者在个体中的分布确实具有一小部分个体报告频率非常高的特点。引人注目的是，我们发现，接触的平均持续时间大多是不变的接触的数量，加强枢纽的关键性。我们模拟了嵌入在网络中的人口与经验观察到的接触频率。模拟表明，以枢纽为目标可以有力地提高遏制能力。
英文摘要：
Network scientists have proposed that infectious diseases involving person-to-person transmission may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals. Can this strategy be effective in combating a virus partly transmitted in close-range contact, as many believe SARS-CoV-2 to be? Effectiveness critically depends on high between-person variability in the number of close-range contacts. We analyze population survey data showing that indeed the distribution of close-range contacts across individuals is characterized by a small fraction of individuals reporting very high frequencies. Strikingly, we find that the average duration of contact is mostly invariant in the number of contacts, reinforcing the criticality of hubs. We simulate a population embedded in a network with empirically observed contact frequencies. Simulations show that targeting hubs robustly improves containment.
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