德国地区一级致死性COVID-19感染的现报
Nowcasting fatal COVID-19 infections on a regional level in Germany
摘要：
我们分析了与COVID-19感染相关的死亡率的时间和区域结构。我们将每个死亡患者的死亡日期与相应的感染登记日相关联，从而建立一个即时预测模型，使我们能够估计在以后的日期被证明是致命的当前感染的数量。这些数字被分解到德国的地区一级。鉴于死亡计数通常提供更可靠的信息，疾病的传播相比，感染计数，这不可避免地取决于测试策略和能力，所提出的模型和所呈现的结果允许获得可靠的洞察到目前的状态，在德国的大流行。
英文摘要：
We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model which allows us to estimate the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. The numbers are broken down to the district level in Germany. Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
