观察条件封锁在流行病中作用的一个猜想实验
A Conjectural Experiment to Observe the Effect of Conditional locked-down in an Epidemic
摘要：
在像Covid-19这样的大流行中，有许多低收入国家无法在发现病例的持续时间内提供完全封锁。疫情爆发后，封锁可能会导致整个欠发达国家地区出现饥荒。因此，通过在5种不同的情况下应用特定的封锁期（30天），研究了流行病的自然设置。SEIR（易感，暴露，感染和隔离）模型的随机方法已被用来评估的动态和锁定的影响。据观察，存在一个合适的时期，适用于锁定，更容易逃脱感染。还研究了早期（一旦发现感染病例）和晚期（相对于不封锁的情况下发现病例的估计高峰）实施封锁的效果，发现晚期实施封锁将花费最少的时间来结束流行病。在所有考虑的情况下，病死率也在7.55至8.02之间变化。
英文摘要：
In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries after the outbreak. So, a conjectural setup of an epidemic has been studied by applying specific period of locked-down (30 days) in 5 different scenarios. The stochastic approach to the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered) model has been used to evaluate the dynamics and the effects of locked-down. It is observed that there exist a suitable period to apply locked-down where more susceptible escape from the infection. The effect of the early (as soon as the infected case detected) and late (with respect to the estimated peak of detected cases for no locked-down) implementation of the locked-down has also been studied and found that the late implementation of locked-down will take the least time to end the epidemic. The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) has also been found to be varied from 7.55 to 8.02 for all the considered scenarios.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
