利用CO2排放强度预测控制热泵
Control of heat pumps with CO2 emission intensity forecasts
摘要：
为减少相关发电过程中的CO2排放，提出了一种用于建筑供暖的热泵优化控制方法。该控制使用天气和CO2排放预测作为模型预测控制（MPC）的输入，MPC是使用动态过程模型、约束和要最小化的代价函数的多变量控制算法。在一项模拟研究中，使用2017-2018年全年期间的天气和电网条件对电力招标区DK2（丹麦东部）进行了控制。研究了两种情况;一种是家庭住宅，另一种是办公楼。建筑物的尺寸是根据标准和建筑规范确定的。主要的结果是衡量的CO2排放量节省相对于一个经典的CO2控制。注意，这仅测量使用MPC控制实现的增益，即能量灵活性，而不是绝对节省。结果表明，在此期间，采用地板供暖的隔热良好的新建筑可以节省约16%的费用。此外，还进行了敏感性分析，以评估各种建筑性能的影响，例如绝缘水平和热容量。1977年及以后的丹麦建筑规范被用作绝缘水平的基准。结果表明，绝缘和热质量影响可实现的灵活性节省，特别是地板采暖。符合1979年以后的规范的建筑物可以提供约10%的灵活性减排，而符合早期规范的建筑物根据供暖系统和热质量的不同，可以节省0-5%。
英文摘要：
An optimized heat pump control for building heating was developed for minimizing CO2 emissions from related electrical power generation. The control is using weather and CO2 emission forecasts as input to a Model Predictive Control (MPC) - a multivariate control algorithm using a dynamic process model, constraints and a cost function to be minimized. In a simulation study the control was applied using weather and power grid conditions during a full year period in 2017-2018 for the power bidding zone DK2 (East, Denmark). Two scenarios were studied; one with a family house and one with an office building. The buildings were dimensioned on the basis of standards and building codes. The main results are measured as the CO2 emission savings relative to a classical thermostatic control. Note that this only measures the gain achieved using the MPC control, i.e. the energy flexibility, not the absolute savings. The results show that around 16% savings could have been achieved during the period in well insulated new buildings with floor heating. Further, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of various building properties, e.g. level of insulation and thermal capacity. Danish building codes from 1977 and forward was used as benchmarks for insulation levels. It was shown that both insulation and thermal mass influence the achievable flexibility savings, especially for floor heating. Buildings that comply with codes later than 1979 could provide flexibility emission savings of around 10%, while buildings that comply with earlier codes provided savings in the range of 0-5% depending on the heating system and thermal mass.
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