Machine learning models with both good predictability and high interpretability are crucial for decision support systems. Linear regression is one of the most interpretable prediction models. However, the linearity in a simple linear regression worsens its predictability. In this work, we introduce a locally adaptive interpretable regression (LoAIR). In LoAIR, a metamodel parameterized by neural networks predicts percentile of a Gaussian distribution for the regression coefficients for a rapid adaptation. Our experimental results on public benchmark datasets show that our model not only achieves comparable or better predictive performance than the other state-of-the-art baselines but also discovers some interesting relationships between input and target variables such as a parabolic relationship between CO2 emissions and Gross National Product (GNP). Therefore, LoAIR is a step towards bridging the gap between econometrics, statistics, and machine learning by improving the predictive ability of linear regression without depreciating its interpretability.
To gain insight into how characteristics of an establishment are associated with nonresponse, a recursive partitioning algorithm is applied to the Occupational Employment Statistics May 2006 survey data to build a regression tree. The tree models an establishment's propensity to respond to the survey given certain establishment characteristics. It provides mutually exclusive cells based on the characteristics with homogeneous response propensities. This makes it easy to identify interpretable associations between the characteristic variables and an establishment's propensity to respond, someth…
Understanding black-box machine learning models is crucial for their widespread adoption. Learning globally interpretable models is one approach, but achieving high performance with them is challenging. An alternative approach is to explain individual predictions using locally interpretable models. For locally interpretable modeling, various methods have been proposed and indeed commonly used, but they suffer from low fidelity, i.e. their explanations do not approximate the predictions well. In this paper, our goal is to push the state-of-the-art in high-fidelity locally interpretable modeling…
Toronto Metropolitan University（多伦多都会大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）
Despite the high performance of neural network-based time series forecasting methods, the inherent challenge in explaining their predictions has limited their applicability in certain application areas. Due to the difficulty in identifying causal relationships between the input and output of such black-box methods, they rarely have been adopted in domains such as legal and medical fields in which the reliability and interpretability of the results can be essential. In this paper, we propose \model, a novel deep learning-based probabilistic time series forecasting architecture that is intrinsic…
We propose to use boosted regression trees as a way to compute human-interpretable solutions to reinforcement learning problems. Boosting combines several regression trees to improve their accuracy without significantly reducing their inherent interpretability. Prior work has focused independently on reinforcement learning and on interpretable machine learning, but there has been little progress in interpretable reinforcement learning. Our experimental results show that boosted regression trees compute solutions that are both interpretable and match the quality of leading reinforcement learnin…
Bielefeld University（比勒费尔德大学）；Honda Research Institute Europe GmbH（本田欧洲研究所）
When training automated systems, it has been shown to be beneficial to adapt the representation of data by learning a problem-specific metric. This metric is global. We extend this idea and, for the widely used family of k nearest neighbors algorithms, develop a method that allows learning locally adaptive metrics. These local metrics not only improve performance but are naturally interpretable. To demonstrate important aspects of how our approach works, we conduct a number of experiments on synthetic data sets, and we show its usefulness on real-world benchmark data sets.
Supervised Machine Learning (SML) algorithms, such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Networks, have become popular in recent years due to their superior predictive performance over traditional statistical methods. However, their complexity makes the results hard to interpret without additional tools. There has been a lot of recent work in developing global and local diagnostics for interpreting SML models. In this paper, we propose a locally-interpretable model that takes the fitted ML response surface, partitions the predictor space using model-based regression trees, and fits i…
Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression with Temporal Feature Extraction for Partially Interpretable Remaining Useful Life Interval Prediction in Aeroengine Prognostics
We consider an extension of Leo Breiman's thesis from "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures" to include a bifurcation of algorithmic modeling, focusing on parametric regressions, interpretable algorithms, and complex (possibly explainable) algorithms.
In this work, we present an application of Locally Interpretable Machine-Agnostic Explanations to 2-D chemical structures. Using this framework we are able to provide a structural interpretation for an existing black-box model for classifying biologically produced fuel compounds with regard to Research Octane Number. This method of "painting" locally interpretable explanations onto 2-D chemical structures replicates the chemical intuition of synthetic chemists, allowing researchers in the field to directly accept, reject, inform and evaluate decisions underlying inscrutably complex quantitativ…
Supervised Machine Learning (SML) algorithms such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Networks have become popular in recent years due to their increased predictive performance over traditional statistical methods. This is especially true with large data sets (millions or more observations and hundreds to thousands of predictors). However, the complexity of the SML models makes them opaque and hard to interpret without additional tools. There has been a lot of interest recently in developing global and local diagnostics for interpreting and explaining SML models. In this paper, we …
University of Zurich（苏黎世大学）；Zurich University of Applied Sciences（苏黎世应用科学大学）；Konstanz University of Applied Sciences（康斯坦茨应用科学大学）
Outcomes with a natural order commonly occur in prediction tasks and often the available input data are a mixture of complex data like images and tabular predictors. Deep Learning (DL) models are state-of-the-art for image classification tasks but frequently treat ordinal outcomes as unordered and lack interpretability. In contrast, classical ordinal regression models consider the outcome's order and yield interpretable predictor effects but are limited to tabular data. We present ordinal neural network transformation models (ONTRAMs), which unite DL with classical ordinal regression approache…
The University of Washington eScience Institute（华盛顿大学电子科学研究所）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Center for Magnetic Resonance Research（磁共振研究中心）；University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学）
Ridge regression (RR) is a regularization technique that penalizes the L2-norm of the coefficients in linear regression. One of the challenges of using RR is the need to set a hyperparameter ($α$) that controls the amount of regularization. Cross-validation is typically used to select the best $α$ from a set of candidates. However, efficient and appropriate selection of $α$ can be challenging, particularly where large amounts of data are analyzed. Because the selected $α$ depends on the scale of the data and predictors, it is not straightforwardly interpretable. Here, we propose to reparameter…
Are Linear Regression Models White Box and Interpretable?
University of Leicester（莱斯特大学）；Queen Mary University of London（伦敦玛丽女王大学）；Barts Health NHS Trust（巴特保健国民保健信托基金）；University of Zakho（扎胡大学）；St Bartholomew’s Hospital（圣巴塞洛缪医院）；William Harvey Research Institute（威廉·哈维研究所）；NIHR Barts Biomedical Research Centre（英国国家卫生研究院巴特生物医学研究中心）；Barts Heart Centre（巴特心脏中心）
We consider the problem of estimating a regression function in the common situation where the number of features is small, where interpretability of the model is a high priority, and where simple linear or additive models fail to provide adequate performance. To address this problem, we present GapTV, an approach that is conceptually related both to CART and to the more recent CRISP algorithm, a state-of-the-art alternative method for interpretable nonlinear regression. GapTV divides the feature space into blocks of constant value and fits the value of all blocks jointly via a convex optimizat…
We consider the problem of estimating a regression function in the common situation where the number of features is small, where interpretability of the model is a high priority, and where simple linear or additive models fail to provide adequate performance. To address this problem, we present Maximum Variance Total Variation denoising (MVTV), an approach that is conceptually related both to CART and to the more recent CRISP algorithm, a state-of-the-art alternative method for interpretable nonlinear regression. MVTV divides the feature space into blocks of constant value and fits the value o…
Machine learning algorithms such as linear regression, SVM and neural network have played an increasingly important role in the process of scientific discovery. However, none of them is both interpretable and accurate on nonlinear datasets. Here we present contextual regression, a method that joins these two desirable properties together using a hybrid architecture of neural network embedding and dot product layer. We demonstrate its high prediction accuracy and sensitivity through the task of predictive feature selection on a simulated dataset and the application of predicting open chromatin …
Oilfield development related decisions are made using reservoir simulation-based optimization study in which different production scenarios and well controls are compared. Such simulations are computationally expensive and so surrogate models are used to accelerate studies. Deep learning has been used in past to generate surrogates, but such models often fail to quantify prediction uncertainty and are not interpretable. In this work, beta-VAE based regression is proposed to generate simulation surrogates for use in optimization workflow. beta-VAE enables interpretable, factorized representatio…
We develop a novel framework to accelerate Gaussian process regression (GPR). In particular, we consider localization kernels at each data point to down-weigh the contributions from other data points that are far away, and we derive the GPR model stemming from the application of such localization operation. Through a set of experiments, we demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed approach compared to full GPR, other localized models, and deep Gaussian processes. Crucially, these performances are obtained with considerable speedups compared to standard global GPR due to the spars…
Sparse regularization such as $\ell_1$ regularization is a quite powerful and widely used strategy for high dimensional learning problems. The effectiveness of sparse regularization has been supported practically and theoretically by several studies. However, one of the biggest issues in sparse regularization is that its performance is quite sensitive to correlations between features. Ordinary $\ell_1$ regularization can select variables correlated with each other, which results in deterioration of not only its generalization error but also interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new reg…
Mode decomposition is a prototypical pattern recognition problem that can be addressed from the (a priori distinct) perspectives of numerical approximation, statistical inference and deep learning. Could its analysis through these combined perspectives be used as a Rosetta stone for deciphering mechanisms at play in deep learning? Motivated by this question we introduce programmable and interpretable regression networks for pattern recognition and address mode decomposition as a prototypical problem. The programming of these networks is achieved by assembling elementary modules decomposing and…
Regression modelling of spatiotemporal extreme U.S. wildfires via partially-interpretable neural networks
School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学数学学院）；Statistics Program, Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)（阿卜杜拉国王科技大学计算机、电气与数学科学与工程（CEMSE）分部统计项目）
Hybrid Bernstein Normalizing Flows for Flexible Multivariate Density Regression with Interpretable Marginals
Institute for Applied Research HTWG - University of Applied Sciences（应用研究研究所 HTWG - 高等专业学院）；Chair of Statistics and Campus Institute Data Science (CIDAS) University of Göttingen（统计学教授及校园数据科学研究所 (CIDAS) 雷姆森大学）；Department of Statistics LMU Munich（统计学系 慕尼黑大学）；Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)（慕尼黑机器学习中心）
Pollutant exposure during gestation is a known and adverse factor for birth and health outcomes. However, the links between prenatal air pollution exposures and educational outcomes are less clear, in particular the critical windows of susceptibility during pregnancy. Using a large cohort of students in North Carolina, we study the link between prenatal daily $\mbox{PM}_{2.5}$ exposure and 4th end-of-grade reading scores. We develop and apply a locally adaptive and highly scalable Bayesian regression model for scalar responses with functional and scalar predictors. The proposed model pairs a B…
Cluster-Based Generalized Additive Models Informed by Random Fourier Features
Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University（数学与统计学系，乌梅大学）；Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University（统计系，宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Local differential privacy has become the gold-standard of privacy literature for gathering or releasing sensitive individual data points in a privacy-preserving manner. However, locally differential data can twist the probability density of the data because of the additive noise used to ensure privacy. In fact, the density of privacy-preserving data (no matter how many samples we gather) is always flatter in comparison with the density function of the original data points due to convolution with privacy-preserving noise density function. The effect is especially more pronounced when using slo…
Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica（荷兰国家数学与计算机科学研究所）；University of Trieste（的里雅斯特大学）；IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca（卢卡IMT高等研究院）
Many risk-sensitive applications require Machine Learning (ML) models to be interpretable. Attempts to obtain interpretable models typically rely on tuning, by trial-and-error, hyper-parameters of model complexity that are only loosely related to interpretability. We show that it is instead possible to take a meta-learning approach: an ML model of non-trivial Proxies of Human Interpretability (PHIs) can be learned from human feedback, then this model can be incorporated within an ML training process to directly optimize for interpretability. We show this for evolutionary symbolic regression. W…
It is important to develop mathematically tractable models than can interpret knowledge extracted from the data and provide reasonable predictions. In this paper, we present a Linear Distillation Learning, a simple remedy to improve the performance of linear neural networks. Our approach is based on using a linear function for each class in a dataset, which is trained to simulate the output of a teacher linear network for each class separately. We tested our model on MNIST and Omniglot datasets in the Few-Shot learning manner. It showed better results than other interpretable models such as cl…
Interpretable Deep Regression Models with Interval-Censored Failure Time Data
School of Mathematics, Jilin University（吉林大学数学学院）；School of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University（广州大学经济与统计学院）；Department of Statistics, Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学统计系）；School of Data Science, Fudan University（复旦大学数据科学学院）
Interpretability of learning-to-rank models is a crucial yet relatively under-examined research area. Recent progress on interpretable ranking models largely focuses on generating post-hoc explanations for existing black-box ranking models, whereas the alternative option of building an intrinsically interpretable ranking model with transparent and self-explainable structure remains unexplored. Developing fully-understandable ranking models is necessary in some scenarios (e.g., due to legal or policy constraints) where post-hoc methods cannot provide sufficiently accurate explanations. In this …
Clemson University（克莱姆森大学）；University of North Carolina at Greensboro（北卡罗来纳大学格林斯伯勒分校）；Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学佩雷尔曼医学院）；Duke University（杜克大学）；National Center for Theoretical Sciences（国家理论科学研究中心）
Airflow signal encodes rich information about respiratory system. While the gold standard for measuring airflow is to use a spirometer with an occlusive seal, this is not practical for ambulatory monitoring of patients. Advances in sensor technology have made measurement of motion of the thorax and abdomen feasible with small inexpensive devices, but estimation of airflow from these time series is challenging. We propose to use the nonlinear-type time-frequency analysis tool, synchrosqueezing transform, to properly represent the thoracic and abdominal movement signals as the features, which ar…
In this paper, we introduce a novel method to generate interpretable regression function estimators. The idea is based on called data-dependent coverings. The aim is to extract from the data a covering of the feature space instead of a partition. The estimator predicts the empirical conditional expectation over the cells of the partitions generated from the coverings. Thus, such estimator has the same form as those issued from data-dependent partitioning algorithms. We give sufficient conditions to ensure the consistency, avoiding the sufficient condition of shrinkage of the cells that appears…
Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain amount of the generated echo-regressors effectively explain the variance of the teacher output and also that sole local regularization is not able to provide in-depth information concerning the importance of the generated regressors. The importance is therefore determined by a joint calculation of the individual variance contributions and Bayesian relevance usi…
We consider machine learning, particularly regression, using locally-differentially private datasets. The Wasserstein distance is used to define an ambiguity set centered at the empirical distribution of the dataset corrupted by local differential privacy noise. The ambiguity set is shown to contain the probability distribution of unperturbed, clean data. The radius of the ambiguity set is a function of the privacy budget, spread of the data, and the size of the problem. Hence, machine learning with locally-differentially private datasets can be rewritten as a distributionally-robust optimizat…
Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDI…
INRIA Grenoble Rhône-Alpes（法国国家信息与自动化研究所格勒诺布尔-罗纳-阿尔卑斯分所）；Univ. Grenoble Alpes（格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学）；Technion-Israel Inst. of Technology（以色列理工学院）
This paper addresses the problem of localizing audio sources using binaural measurements. We propose a supervised formulation that simultaneously localizes multiple sources at different locations. The approach is intrinsically efficient because, contrary to prior work, it relies neither on source separation, nor on monaural segregation. The method starts with a training stage that establishes a locally-linear Gaussian regression model between the directional coordinates of all the sources and the auditory features extracted from binaural measurements. While fixed-length wide-spectrum sounds (w…
