结构渔业中的平方根定律
Square Root Laws in Structured Fisheries
摘要：
我们在渔业的背景下引入术语净扩散，并建立经济和可持续发展的青睐的扩散和净扩散之间的关系。由此产生的平方根法律解析推导出的物种以下的贝弗顿-霍尔特复发，但我们发现，也可以作为其他模型的参考点。这些分析得出的平方根法律的实际意义进行了测试，在澳大利亚卡奔塔利亚南部海湾的澳洲肺鱼渔业。一个Beverton-Holt模型，包括随机性，以考虑模型的不确定性，适合于这个渔业的渔获量和丰度指数的时间序列。模拟表明，尽管存在随机性，但根据平方根定律，人口水平仍然是可持续的。该应用程序，其继承的模型的不确定性，火花的风险敏感性分析的人口下降到不可持续的阈值以下的概率。对这种敏感性的描述有助于了解过度捕捞的危险和可能的补救措施。
英文摘要：
We introduce the term net-proliferation in the context of fisheries and establish relations between the proliferation and net-proliferation that are economically and sustainably favored. The resulting square root laws are analytically derived for species following the Beverton-Holt recurrence but, we show, can also serve as reference points for other models. The practical relevance of these analytically derived square root laws is tested on the the Barramundi fishery in the Southern Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia. A Beverton-Holt model, including stochasticity to account for model uncertainty, is fitted to a time series of catch and abundance index for this fishery. Simulations show, that despite the stochasticity, the population levels remain sustainable under the square root law. The application, with its inherited model uncertainty, sparks a risk sensitivity analysis regarding the probability of populations falling below an unsustainable threshold. Characterization of such sensitivity helps in the understanding of both dangers of overfishing and potential remedies.
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