Michał Narajewski, Florian Ziel
The article covers electricity demand shift effects due to COVID-19 shutdowns in various European countries. We utilize high-dimensional regression techniques to exploit the structural breaks in demand profiles due to the shutdowns. We discuss the findings with respect to coronavirus pandemic progress and regulatory measures of the considered countries.
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The interconnected European Electricity Markets see considerable cross-border trade between different countries. In conjunction with the structure and technical characteristics of the power grid and its operating rules, the corresponding commercial flows translate into actual physical flows on the interconnection lines. From the interplay of different physical, technical, and economic factors thus emerge complex spatiotemporal power flow patterns. Using Principal Component Analysis, in this contribution hourly time-series of cross-border physical flows between European countries in 2017 and 20…
Tracing carbon dioxide emissions in the European electricity markets
本文比较基于消费的碳排放核算的两种方法学变体，测算2016至2019年欧洲各国发电排放强度，揭示进口电力及投入产出模型选择对小型高互联国家归因排放的显著影响。
For a cost efficient design of a future renewable European electricity system, the placement of renewable generation capacity will seek to exploit locations with good resource quality, that is for instance onshore wind in countries bordering the North Sea and solar PV in South European countries. Regions with less favorable renewable generation conditions benefit from this remote capacity by importing the respective electricity as power flows through the transmission grid. The resulting intricate pattern of imports and exports represents a challenge for the analysis of system costs on the leve…
Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly. Although the volume change for the electricity demand is considered, the potential change of the demand pattern is ignored. Meanwhile, the future electricity demand pattern is highly uncertain due to various factors, including climate change, e-mobility, electric heating, and electric cooling. We use a techno-economic cost optimization model to investigate …
The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European electricity production dominated by renewable sources, it is of paramount importance to anticipate how production dispatches will evolve, to understand how increased fluctuations in power generations can be absorbed at the pan-European level and to evaluate where the resulting changes in power flows will require significant grid upgrades. To address these is…
To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable gener…
Dynamic grid emission factors provide a temporally resolved signal about the carbon intensity of electricity generation in the power system. Since actual carbon dioxide emission measurements are usually lacking, such a signal must be derived from system-specific emission factors combined with power generation time series. We present a bottom-up method that allows deriving per country and per technology emission factors for European countries based on plant specific power generation time series and reported emissions from the European emissions trading mechanism. We have matched, 595 fossil gen…
The electricity system value of the local acceptance of onshore wind in Europe
研究评估了欧洲本地对风电影响的容忍度如何影响电力系统成本与设计，发现较低容忍度会使风电在净零排放中的作用减少84%，需扩大其他低碳能源以补偿，导致电力系统成本上升2-14%。
The European Power Exchange has introduced day-ahead auctions and continuous trading spot markets to facilitate the insertion of renewable electricity. These markets are designed to balance excess or lack of power in short time periods, which leads to a large stochastic variability of the electricity prices. Furthermore, the different markets show different stochastic memory in their electricity price time series, which seem to be the cause for the large volatility. In particular, we show the antithetical temporal correlation in the intraday 15 minutes spot markets in comparison to the day-ahe…
Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe
研究通过分析欧洲35年天气数据，发现极端干旱事件决定了长周期储能需求，需351太瓦时储能容量，占欧洲年用电量7%，核能部分缓解需求，但化石燃料备用与碳移除效果有限。
The European Electricity Grid System and Winter Peak Load Stress: For how long can the european grid system survive the ever increasing demand during cold winter days?
至少在过去30年里，西欧的富裕国家及其公民从一个非常稳定的电网中受益。这种稳定性是由欧洲电网系统和一个灵活可靠的大型备用发电厂容量实现的。在过去的10-20年里，这一系统允许需求持续增长，每年高达百分之几。然而，部分由于这种产能过剩，在过去10-15年中没有新的大型发电厂建成。明显的后果是，可靠的备用容量已经减少，并且只有在不久之后建造新的发电厂，才能实现每年1-2%的电能需求增长。UCTE提供的来自欧洲各国的数据表明，在峰值负荷期间，特别是在特别寒冷的冬季，系统应力比通常假设的要大得多。事实上，UCTE关于可靠电力容量的最新数据表明，在2007/8年冬季，西欧只有几个非常寒冷的冬日可能会在法国和邻国的傍晚高峰负荷时间导致非常令人不快的供应问题。对建设和运营新发电厂的潜力进行的分析表明，似乎不存在允许消费量进一步持续增长1-2%的短期解决方案。因此，如果欧洲各国政府不采取任何行动来认真减少电力需求，停电的风险将在不久的将来急剧增加。建议采取一些简单的短期政治行动，而不是简单地等待停电灾难的发生。
Methodology to assess prosumer participation in European electricity markets
本文提出一种评估产消者参与电力市场开放程度的方法论，通过比较西班牙、意大利、克罗地亚和英国的监管框架与市场设计，将国家分为几乎开放、部分开放和封闭三类，并给出促进用户参与的建议。
Transmission grid extensions during the build-up of a fully renewable pan-European electricity supply
时空发电模式的风能和太阳能光伏发电在欧洲被用来调查未来的增长，这些可变的可再生能源（VRES）在泛欧电力系统的渗透率越来越高的传输需求。根据欧盟国家的官方国家可再生能源行动计划的VRES增长预测被使用，并在逻辑上推断为完全由VRES供电的电力系统。我们发现，保持今天的国际净转移能力（NTCs）固定在未来四十年内减少了13%的备份能源的最终需求相比，没有NTCs的情况。今天的NTCs总体翻一番将导致26%的减少，总体翻两番达到33%的减少。对备用能源的剩余需求是由于发电模式的相关性，并且不能通过传输进一步减少。输电线路的主要投资将在VRES从15%（计划于2020年）提升至80%期间到期。此外，我们的研究结果表明，风力和太阳能之间的最佳组合转移从约70%到80%的风能份额作为输电网的增强。最后，我们分析了在VRES加速期间，加强传输如何影响单个国家的进出口机会。
We use three ensemble members of the EURO-CORDEX project and their data on surface wind speeds, solar irradiation as well as water runoff with a spatial resolution of 12 km and a temporal resolution of 3 hours under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (associated with a temperature increase of 2.6 to 4.8 degrees C until the end of the century) until 2100 to investigate the impact of climate change on wind, solar and hydro resources and consequently on a highly renewable and cost-optimal European power system. The weather data is transformed into power, different aspects such as capacity f…
Ambitious targets for renewable energy and CO2 taxation both represent political instruments for decarbonisation of the energy system. We model a high number of coupled electricity and heating systems, where the primary sources of CO2 neutral energy are from variable renewable energy sources (VRES), i.e., wind and solar generators. The model includes hourly dispatch of all technologies for a full year for every country in Europe. In each model run, the amount of renewable energy and the level of CO2 tax are fixed exogenously, while the cost-optimal composition of energy generation, conversion,…
Incorporating climate change effects into the European power system adequacy assessment using a post-processing method
本文提出基于文献结果的后处理方法，修改欧洲大规模电力市场模型输入，以评估温度和来水变化对长期电力充裕性的影响，发现气候变化或使欧洲总LOLE小时数下降逾50%。
Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the nodal injection and line flow patterns in a network model of a future highly renewable European electricity system are investigated. It is shown that the number of principal components needed to describe 95$\%$ of the nodal power injection variance first increases with the spatial resolution of the system representation. The number of relevant components then saturates at around 76 components for network sizes larger than 512 nodes, which can be related to the correlation length of wind patterns over Europe. Remarkably, the application of PCA to th…
Most studies that examine CO2-neutral, or near CO2-neutral, power systems by using energy system models investigate Europe or the United States, while similar studies for other regions are rare. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on the system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for internatio…
Market Integration Pathways for Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Europe
本研究探讨欧洲增强型地热系统（EGS）在碳中和能源系统中的应用场景，发现当前成本下其以区域供热驱动的热电联产装机可达20–30GWth，钻井成本降60%后电力市场空间扩一个数量级，且其市场潜力依赖泛欧技术降本，需利益相关方协调推进。
The Potential Role of a Hydrogen Network in Europe
本文通过高分辨率部门耦合能源模型评估欧洲氢能网络，发现复用天然气管网可年降系统成本至多3.4%，但仅能部分替代电网扩建。
With growing amounts of wind and solar power in the electricity mix of many European countries, understanding and predicting variations of renewable energy generation at multiple timescales is crucial to ensure reliable electricity systems. At seasonal scale, the balance between supply and demand is mostly determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which is uncertain due to climate change and natural variability. Here we employ four teleconnection indices, which represent a linkage between atmospheric conditions at widely separated regions, to describe the large-scale circulation a…
Long-term hourly time series representing the PV generation in European countries have been obtained and made available under open license. For every country, four different PV configurations, i.e. rooftop, optimum tilt, tracking, and delta have been investigated. These are shown to have a strong influence in the hourly difference between electricity demand and PV generation. To obtain PV time series, irradiance from CFSR reanalysis dataset is converted into electricity generation and aggregated at country level. Prior to conversion, reanalysis irradiance is bias corrected using satellite-base…
Long distance transmission within continents has been shown to be one of the most important variation management strategies in renewable energy systems, where allowing for transmission expansion will reduce system cost by around 20%. In this paper, we test whether the system cost further decreases when transmission is extended to intercontinental connections. We analyze a Eurasian interconnection between China, Mid-Asia and Europe, using a capacity expansion model with hourly time resolution. The model is constrained by an increasingly tighter global cap on CO2 emissions in order to investigat…
Decarbonisation of industry and the energy system: exploring mutual impacts and investment planning
本研究结合欧洲工业与能源系统模型，分析二者脱碳的相互影响，发现工业脱碳推高电氢需求、价格存在区域差异，电结构仍以可再生能源为主，本土制氢可通过协同维持价格竞争力。
What can transmission do for a fully renewable Europe?
我们的研究围绕着如何最好地将可变可再生能源（VRES），风能和太阳能光伏发电整合到欧洲电网中的问题。未来的电力供应将在很大程度上基于这些波动的资源。我们进行了一项研究，推断欧洲国家的历史和目标风能和太阳能渗透率高达100% VRES（R.A. Rodriguez等人，Renewable Energy 63，第467页，2014年3月和S. Becker等人，Energy 64，第404页，2014年1月）。VRES的高份额意味着发电量的大幅波动，导致生产过剩和赤字。减少这种失配的一种方法是功率传输在空间上平滑波动。这有可能通过分享其他国家的剩余生产来减少剩余的短缺。我们发现，在假设整个欧洲的传输容量无限的情况下，短缺最多可以减少40%。一个更现实的输电网扩展，大约是今天安装的四倍，足以收获90%的潜在效益。最后，研究了单个国家的进出口情况。我们的结论是，一个国家的负载大小，以及其在网络中的位置是其进口/出口机会的决定性因素。
Energy system models are increasingly being used to explore scenarios with large shares of variable renewables. This requires input data of high spatial and temporal resolution and places a considerable preprocessing burden on the modeling team. Here we present a new code set with an open source license for automatic generation of input data for large-scale energy system models for arbitrary regions of the world, including sub-national regions, along with an associated generic capacity expansion model of the electricity system. We use ECMWF ERA5 global reanalysis data along with other public g…
Dodging the electricity price hike: Can demand-side flexibility compensate for spot price increases for households in Germany?
研究分析了德国家庭通过HEMS和智能电表利用需求侧灵活性应对动态电价上涨的成本效益，发现动态电价对拥有电动汽车的家庭更具财务优势，并确定了实现节约的额外年度成本上限。
Identifying demand-side measures that matter most for Europe's decarbonisation
本研究利用欧洲能源系统高分辨率模型，协同优化七部门供需策略，发现供暖和工业需求削减收益最大，电力部门关键需求削减最有效，且小规模灵活性措施如两小时需求转移也能带来显著系统优势。
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