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arXiv 2004.12794cs.NEcs.LGeess.SP
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基于混合神经进化算法的风力发电机出力预测

Hybrid Neuro-Evolutionary Method for Predicting Wind Turbine Power Output

The University of Adelaide(阿德莱德大学);Sapienza University of Rome(罗马大学);The Australian Institute for Machine Learning(澳大利亚机器学习研究院);KTH Royal Institute of Technology(瑞典皇家理工学院)

Mehdi Neshat, Meysam Majidi Nezhad, Ehsan Abbasnejad, Daniele Groppi, Azim Heydari, Lina Bertling Tjernberg, Davide Astiaso Garcia, Bradley Alexander, Markus Wagner

摘要:

可靠的风力涡轮机功率预测对于风电场的规划、调度和控制以实现稳定的电力生产至关重要。近年来,机器学习(ML)方法已成功应用于包括可再生能源在内的广泛领域。然而,由于风电场功率预测的挑战性,目前的模型远远达不到行业所需的精度。在本文中,我们部署了一种复合ML方法-即混合神经进化算法-用于准确预测风力涡轮机农场的功率输出。我们使用历史数据的监督控制和数据采集(SCADA)系统作为输入,以估计在瑞典的陆上风电场的功率输出。在初始阶段,分别采用k-means聚类方法和自动编码器来检测和过滤SCADA测量中的噪声。接下来,与先验知识,基本的风模式是高度非线性和多样化的,我们结合了自适应差分进化(SaDE)算法作为超参数优化器,和一个递归神经网络(RNN)称为长短期记忆(LSTM)的风力涡轮机在农场的功率曲线建模。在实验中,我们考虑了两个短期预报视野,包括10分钟前和1小时前。我们表明,我们的方法优于其同行。

英文摘要:

Reliable wind turbine power prediction is imperative to the planning, scheduling and control of wind energy farms for stable power production. In recent years Machine Learning (ML) methods have been successfully applied in a wide range of domains, including renewable energy. However, due to the challenging nature of power prediction in wind farms, current models are far short of the accuracy required by industry. In this paper, we deploy a composite ML approach--namely a hybrid neuro-evolutionary algorithm--for accurate forecasting of the power output in wind-turbine farms. We use historical data in the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems as input to estimate the power output from an onshore wind farm in Sweden. At the beginning stage, the k-means clustering method and an Autoencoder are employed, respectively, to detect and filter noise in the SCADA measurements. Next, with the prior knowledge that the underlying wind patterns are highly non-linear and diverse, we combine a self-adaptive differential evolution (SaDE) algorithm as a hyper-parameter optimizer, and a recurrent neural network (RNN) called Long Short-term memory (LSTM) to model the power curve of a wind turbine in a farm. Two short time forecasting horizons, including ten-minutes ahead and one-hour ahead, are considered in our experiments. We show that our approach outperforms its counterparts.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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