突尼斯新型冠状病毒病感染：数学模型和检疫策略的影响
Novel Corona virus Disease infection in Tunisia: Mathematical model and the impact of the quarantine strategy
摘要：
在本文中，我们提出了一个新的COVID-19感染动力学模型。我们的方法包括七个表型：易感人群，暴露人群，感染人群，康复人群，隔离人群，康复暴露人群和死亡人群。首先用数学方法证明了所考虑模型解的正性、有界性和存在性。研究了无病平衡点的存在性及相应的稳定性。因此，计算了实际繁殖数量。我们分析了基本重现R_0对模型置信度的依赖性。我们的工作特别表明，如果繁殖次数小于1，疾病就会减少。此外，检疫策略，以减少这种疾病的传播的影响进行了讨论。通过对传染病微分方程组的数值模拟，验证了理论结果的正确性。
英文摘要：
In this paper, we propose a new model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our approach consists of seven phenotypes: the susceptible humans, exposed humans, infectious humans, the recovered humans, the quarantine population, the recovered-exposed and deceased population. We proved first through mathematical approach the positivity, boundness and existence of a solution to considered model. We also studied the existence of the disease free equilibrium and corresp onding stability. Hence, the actual reproduction number was calculated . We analyzed the dependence of basic reproductions R_0 on the confidence of our model. Our work shows, in particular, that the disease will decrease out if the number of reproduction was less than one. Moreover, the impact of the quarantine strategies to reduce the spread of this disease is discussed. The theoretical results are validated by some numerical simulations of the system of the epidemic's differential equations.
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