基于图的宏观能量系统建模方法
A graph-based formulation for modeling macro-energy systems
摘要：
要避免气候变化即将带来的危害，就需要用可再生能源取代化石燃料，将其作为主要能源。由于非电力可再生能源的潜力有限，这意味着将风能和太阳能发电的使用范围扩大到电力部门以外，无论是直接电气化还是合成燃料。建模向这样一个能源系统的转变是具有挑战性的，因为它需要考虑风能和太阳能的波动以及需求方可以调整这些波动的多种方式。本文介绍了一种基于图形的方法来制定能源系统模型，以应对这些挑战。通过在有根树中组织集合，可以实现两个功能，以便于对可再生能源的高份额和部门集成进行建模。首先，该方法允许的时间和空间的细节的水平是不同的能量载体。这使得建模具有高级别的细节和大范围，同时保持模型在计算上易于处理。其次，能源载体在转换、储存、运输或消耗时的可替代程度可以建模，以实现详细但灵活的部门整合表示。该公式的应用表明，时间细节的变化实现了70%的计算时间的平均减少。
英文摘要：
Averting the impending harms of climate change requires to replace fossil fuels with renewables as a primary source of energy. Non-electric renewable potential being limited, this implies extending the use of electricity generated from wind and solar beyond the power sector, either by direct electrification or synthetic fuels. Modeling the transformation towards such an energy system is challenging, because it imposes to consider fluctuations of wind and solar and the manifold ways the demand side could adjust to these fluctuations. This paper introduces a graph-based method to formulate energy system models to address these challenges. By organizing sets in rooted trees, two features to facilitate modeling high shares of renewables and sector integration are enabled. First, the method allows the level of temporal and spatial detail to be varied by energy carrier. This enables modeling with a high level of detail and a large scope, while keeping models computationally tractable. Second, the degree to which energy carriers are substitutable when converted, stored, transported, or consumed can be modeled to achieve a detailed but flexible representation of sector integration. An application of the formulation demonstrates that the variation of temporal detail achieves an average reduction in computation time of 70\%.
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