We consider the problem of controlling an SIR-model epidemic by temporarily reducing the rate of contact within a population. The control takes the form of a multiplicative reduction in the contact rate of infectious individuals. The control is allowed to be applied only over a finite time interval, while the objective is to minimize the total number of individuals infected in the long-time limit, subject to some cost function for the control. We first consider the no-cost scenario and analytically determine the optimal control and solution. We then study solutions when a cost of intervention is included, as well as a cost associated with overwhelming the available medical resources. Examples are studied through the numerical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Finally, we provide some examples related directly to the current pandemic.
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and infected individuals. This allows one to model either the reaction of individuals to the information about the spread of the disease or the result of government restriction measures, imposed to limit social interactions and contain contagion. We study the effect of both smooth dependancies of the contact rate for which we prove the existence of a threshold phenom…
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. In this case, the optimal control must meet compe…
We give the explicit solution of the optimal control problem which consists in minimizing the epidemic peak in the SIR model when the control is an attenuation factor of the infectious rate, subject to a L 1 budget constraint. The optimal strategy is given as a feedback control which consists in an singular arc maintaining the infected population at a constant level until the immunity threshold is reached, and no intervention outside the singular arc.
This paper studies algorithmic strategies to effectively reduce the number of infections in susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic models. We consider a Markov chain SIR model and its two instantiations in the deterministic SIR (D-SIR) model and the independent cascade SIR (IC-SIR) model. We investigate the problem of minimizing the number of infections by restricting contacts under realistic constraints. Under moderate assumptions on the reproduction number, we prove that the infection numbers are bounded by supermodular functions in the D-SIR model and the IC-SIR model for large class…
This paper is concerned with the design of intermittent non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exploiting network epidemiological models. Specifically, by studying a variational equation for the dynamics of the infected in a network model of the epidemic spread, we derive, using contractivity arguments, a condition that can be used to guarantee that, in epidemiological terms, the effective reproduction number is less than unity. This condition has three advantages: (i) it is easily computable; (ii) it is directly related to the model parameters; (iii) it …
Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting disease outbreaks have received increasing attention. Given its successful application in the evaluation of infectious diseases scale, we propose a Susceptible-Undiagnosed-Infected-Removed (SUIR) model to offer the effective prediction, prevention, and control of infectious diseases. Our model is a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that injects u…
The aim of this paper is to provide a rigorous mathematical analysis of an optimal control problem with SIR dynamics. The main feature of our study is the presence of state constraints (related to intensive care units ICU capacity) and strict target objectives (related to the immunity threshold). The first class of results provides a comprehensive description of different zones of interest using viability tools. The second achievement is a thorough mathematical analysis of Pontryagin extremals for the aforementioned problem allowing to obtain an explicit closed-loop feedback optimal control. A…
Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on networks. Our framework incorporates several key factors present in testing data, such as the fact that high risk individuals are more likely to undergo testing. We then present two tractable optimization problems to evaluate the trade-off between controlling the growth-rate of the epidemic and the cost of non-pharmaceuti…
Jacobs University（雅各布大学）；KTH Royal Institute of Technology（KTH皇家理工学院）
This paper proposes a data-driven set-based estimation algorithm for a class of nonlinear systems with polynomial nonlinearities. Using the system's input-output data, the proposed method computes a set that guarantees the inclusion of the system's state in real-time. Although the system is assumed to be a polynomial type, the exact polynomial functions, and their coefficients are assumed to be unknown. To this end, the estimator relies on offline and online phases. The offline phase utilizes past input-output data to estimate a set of possible coefficients of the polynomial system. Then, usin…
We investigate the time-optimal control problem in SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic models, focusing on different control policies: vaccination, isolation, culling, and reduction of transmission. Applying the Pontryagin's Minimum Principle (PMP) to the unconstrained control problems (i.e. without costs of control or resource limitations), we prove that, for all the policies investigated, only bang-bang controls with at most one switch are admitted. When a switch occurs, the optimal strategy is to delay the control action some amount of time and then apply the control at the maximu…
An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is introduced. The general equations of the ultrametric SIR model are written down and their particular implementation using $p$-adic parameterization is presented. A numerical analysis of the $p$-adic SIR model and a comparison of its behavior with the classical SIR model are performed. The concept of hierarchical isolation and the scenario of its management in order …
The aim of this paper is twofold. On one hand, we strive to give a simpler proof of the optimality of greedy controls when the cost of interventions is control-affine and the dynamics follow a state-constrained controlled SIR model. This is achieved using the Hamilton-Jacobi characterization of the value function, via the verification argument and explicit trajectorybased computations. Aside from providing an alternative to the Pontryagin complex arguments in [5], this method allows one to consider more general classes of costs; in particular statedependent ones. On the other hand, the paper i…
Optimal Impulse Control of SIR Epidemics over Scale-Free Networks
St. Petersburg State University（圣彼得堡国立大学）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University（纽约大学坦登工程学院电气与计算机工程系）
This paper revisits a longstanding problem of interest concerning the distributed control of an epidemic process on human contact networks. Due to the stochastic nature and combinatorial complexity of the problem, finding optimal policies are intractable even for small networks. Even if a solution could be found efficiently enough, a potentially larger problem is such policies are notoriously brittle when confronted with small disturbances or uncooperative agents in the network. Unlike the vast majority of related works in this area, we circumvent the goal of directly solving the intractable a…
In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. We develop an extension of the SEIR epidemic model that captures the effects of changes in human mobility on the spread of the disease. The parameters of our data-driven model are learned using a multitask learning approach that leverages both data on the number of deaths across a set of regions, and cellphone data on indi…
Case isolation, that is, detection and isolation of infected individuals in order to prevent spread, is a strategy to curb infectious disease epidemics. Here, we study the efficiency of a case isolation strategy subject to time delays in terms of its ability to stabilize the epidemic spread in heterogeneous contact networks. For an SIR epidemic model, we characterize the stability boundary analytically and show how it depends on the time delay between infection and isolation as well as the heterogeneity of the inter-individual contact network, quantified by the variance in contact rates. We sh…
