传染病的尾部风险
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
摘要：
应用极值理论的一个修改（由于作者对过去2,500年数据的双重分布技术），我们表明流行病在死亡率方面是非常胖的，对人类具有明显的潜在存在风险。这样的宏观属性应该邀请使用极值理论（EVT），而不是天真的插值和预期平均值的风险管理目的。一个含义是，潜在的尾部风险推翻了来自房室流行病学模型和类似方法的决定的结论。
英文摘要：
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially existential risk for humanity. Such a macro property should invite the use of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) rather than naive interpolations and expected averages for risk management purposes. An implication is that potential tail risk overrides conclusions on decisions derived from compartmental epidemiological models and similar approaches.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
