A data driven analysis and forecast of an SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico

基于SEIARD流行病模型的传染病保险精算分析

Actuarial Analysis of an Infectious Disease Insurance based on an SEIARD Epidemiological Model

本文提出基于SEIARD模型的传染病保险精算框架，用于建模潜伏期和疾病导致的死亡，计算寿险现值、支付流和净保费，并分析流行病过程中储备金的变化及感染、死亡和移除力对生存概率的影响。

COVID-19 in Mexico: A Network of Epidemics

Mexico, like the rest of the world, is currently facing the The COVID-19 pandemic. Given the size of its territory, the efforts to contain the disease have involved both national and regional measures. For this work, the curves of daily new cases of each municipality reported by the federal government were compared. We found that 114 municipalities form a large network of statistically dependent epidemic phenomena. Based on the network's modular structure, these 114 municipalities can be split into four distinct communities of coordinated epidemic phenomena. These clusters are not limited by g…

Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico: a mathematical approach

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several countries. In this work, we assess the effectiveness of the mitigation implemented to constrain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican territory during 2020. We also investigate to what extent the initial deployment of the vaccine will help to mitigate the pandemic and reduce the need for social distancing and other mobility restrictions. Our modeling appro…

Modelling Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico, Finland and Iceland

Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between regions. Towards this we have devised a model of geographical spreading of viral infections due to human spatial mobility and adapted it to the latest COVID-19 pandemic. In this the region to be modelled is overlaid with a two-dimensional grid weighted with the population density defined cells, in each of which a compartmental SEIRS system of delay difference e…

Estimación del número de reproducción de la epidemia COVID-19 en Culiacán Sinaloa, México

Currently the COVID-19 epidemic is developing in the City of Culiacń Sinaloa, Mexico, where up to April 20 of this year there have been 35 deaths associated with this epidemic. The reproduction number $(R_0)$ of an epidemic represents the average number of people infected by an infected person during their period of infection. In this work we use the data published by the Secretary of Health of the State of Sinaloa on the number of new infected cases confirmed per day and we estimate that the value of $R_0$ is 1.562 with a 95% confidence interval given by (1.401,1.742). We also estimate the mo…

Using posterior predictive distributions to analyse epidemic models: COVID-19 in Mexico City

Epidemiological models contain a set of parameters that must be adjusted based on available observations. Once a model has been calibrated, it can be used as a forecasting tool to make predictions and to evaluate contingency plans. It is customary to employ only point estimators for such predictions. However, some models may fit the same data reasonably well for a broad range of parameter values, and this flexibility means that predictions stemming from such models will vary widely, depending on the particular parameter values employed within the range that give a good fit. When data are poor …