群众智慧在正式可用数据之前检测到COVID-19严重程度
Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data
摘要：
在危机发展过程中，确定其严重性至关重要，但获得可靠数据具有挑战性。我们调查了意大利、西班牙和美国地区疫情开始时，初始COVID-19相关推文的地理定位推文强度与一个月后该地区死亡率之间的关系。我们发现，早期社交媒体反应与近一个月后COVID-19死亡的累计人数之间存在显著的比例关系。我们的研究结果表明，“人群”正确地感知了风险。这是为数不多的“群众智慧”可以量化并应用于实践的例子之一。这可以用来建立实时警报系统，有助于危机管理和干预，特别是在发展中国家。这类系统可有助于在危机的早期阶段为快速反应决策提供信息。
英文摘要：
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation between geolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginning of the pandemic across Italian, Spanish and USA regions and mortality in the region a month later. We find significant proportionality between early social media reaction and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths almost a month later. Our findings suggest that "the crowds" perceived the risk correctly. This is one of the few examples where the "wisdom of crowds" can be quantified and applied in practice. This can be used to create real-time alert systems that could be of help for crisis-management and intervention, especially in developing countries. Such systems could contribute to inform fast-response policy making at early stages of a crisis.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
