arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2004.02973cs.AIcs.CLcs.GT
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从自由文本预测战略行为

Predicting Strategic Behavior from Free Text

Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology(以色列理工学院工业工程与管理系);Computer Science, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology(以色列理工学院计算机科学系)

Omer Ben-Porat, Sharon Hirsch, Lital Kuchy, Guy Elad, Roi Reichart, Moshe Tennenholtz

摘要:

消息传递和行为之间的联系对于网络应用(如网络搜索和情感分析)和经济学都是至关重要的。然而,虽然突出的在线应用程序利用自然(人类)语言的消息传递来预测非战略性行动选择,但经济学文献关注的是结构化程式化消息传递与游戏和多智能体遭遇战中的战略决策之间的联系。本文旨在连接这两个研究,我们认为这是非常及时和重要的,由于在网络上的大量在线文本通信。特别是,我们引入了以下问题:可以自由的文本表示的自然语言的经济背景下,作为一个游戏建模的行动选择的预测?为了启动对这个问题的研究,我们介绍了一个人的行动预测在一个一杆游戏的基础上,他/她提供的自由文本的研究,而不知道要玩的游戏。我们通过众包将常识性的人格属性归因于个人撰写的免费文本,并采用转导学习来预测这些人在基于这些属性的一次性游戏中采取的行动,从而解决这个问题。我们的方法使我们能够训练一个单一的分类器,可以预测在多个游戏中采取的行动。在三个研究充分的游戏的实验中,我们的算法相比,毫不逊色,强大的替代方法。在消融分析中,我们证明了我们的建模选择的重要性-用常识性的个性属性和我们的分类器来表示文本-对我们模型的预测能力。

英文摘要:

The connection between messaging and action is fundamental both to web applications, such as web search and sentiment analysis, and to economics. However, while prominent online applications exploit messaging in natural (human) language in order to predict non-strategic action selection, the economics literature focuses on the connection between structured stylized messaging to strategic decisions in games and multi-agent encounters. This paper aims to connect these two strands of research, which we consider highly timely and important due to the vast online textual communication on the web. Particularly, we introduce the following question: can free text expressed in natural language serve for the prediction of action selection in an economic context, modeled as a game? In order to initiate the research on this question, we introduce the study of an individual's action prediction in a one-shot game based on free text he/she provides, while being unaware of the game to be played. We approach the problem by attributing commonsensical personality attributes via crowd-sourcing to free texts written by individuals, and employing transductive learning to predict actions taken by these individuals in one-shot games based on these attributes. Our approach allows us to train a single classifier that can make predictions with respect to actions taken in multiple games. In experiments with three well-studied games, our algorithm compares favorably with strong alternative approaches. In ablation analysis, we demonstrate the importance of our modeling choices---the representation of the text with the commonsensical personality attributes and our classifier---to the predictive power of our model.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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