供应链资源共享决策模型及其在抗击COVID-19中的应用
A Model of Supply-Chain Decisions for Resource Sharing with an Application to Ventilator Allocation to Combat COVID-19
摘要：
本文提出了一个随机最优化模型，用于分配和共享的情况下，流行病的关键资源。对不同实体的需求在不同时间达到高峰，需要从一个中央机构分配初始库存。在风险规避条件下，实体（状态）可以与不同的状态共享关键资源。该模型被应用于研究美国国土安全部（FEMA）联邦紧急事务管理局在COVID-19大流行中向美国不同州分配呼吸机库存。调查结果表明，如果非COVID-19患者的呼吸机库存量不到小于60%，FEMA的20，000台呼吸机库存（截至2020年3月23日）将几乎足以满足预期需求。然而，当超过75%的可用呼吸机库存必须预留给非COVID-19患者时，预计会出现不同程度的短缺。在极端情况下，假设需求集中在预测置信区间的最高四分位数，计划范围内（截至2020年5月31日）的总短缺量约为28，500个呼吸机日，2020年4月12日的峰值短缺量为2，700个呼吸机日。研究结果还表明，在低于平均水平至严重需求的情况下，纽约在其需求高峰期需要为COVID-19患者额外增加7，600 - 9，200台呼吸机。然而，在纽约的高峰需求消退后，可以将其中400至2，000台空调机提供给不同的州。
英文摘要：
This paper presents a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory from a central agency is to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the US Department of Homeland Security (FEMA) to different states in the US. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20,000 ventilators (as of 03/23/2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In an extreme case, where the demand is assumed to be concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (till 05/31/20) is about 28,500 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 2,700 ventilators on 04/12/20. The results also suggest that in the worse-than-average to severe demand scenario cases, NY requires between 7,600-9,200 additional ventilators for COVID-19 patients during its peak demand. However, between 400 to 2,000 of these ventilators can be given to a different state after the peak demand in NY has subsided.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
