马拉维湖Shire河水系治理的随机水文模型
A Stochastic Hydrological Model for Regulation of Lake Malawi Shire River system
摘要：
Kamuzu Barrage位于马拉维南部地区的Liwonde，是Shire河下游唯一的水流调节设施，对马拉维湖的水位有重大影响。本文提出了一个用于鸭津拦河坝优化调度的水文模型-鸭津拦河坝调度模型（KABOM）。该模型是基于随机水文学的鸭津堰水资源管理工具。随机模型使用马拉维湖和利翁德附近的希雷河从1900年1月至今的水位读数。通过使用利翁德的历史流量曲线，并开发更新的2003年后的洪水流量曲线，该模型可以计算利翁德整个时期的流量。该模型模拟了可用的水量收支的概率范围内的基础上，在过去的115年的湖泊水位和流量记录，加上当地的流入量的数据，从其支流的夏尔河。研究结果为鸭津堰泄流策略的选择提供了依据，并可用于每日堰流泄流的优化。由此产生的分位数显示出很强的季节变化，最高的自由水预测在雨季的2月和3月，旱季的6月和7月的最低月份。根据2016年12月至2017年10月期间的实际自由水值控制模拟结果，这表明验证令人满意
英文摘要：
Located in Liwonde in the Southern Region of Malawi, Kamuzu Barrage is the only facility for regulation of water flow down Shire River, which has a major influence on water levels in Lake Malawi. In this article a hydrological model for optimized operation of the Kamuzu Barrage called the Kamuzu Barrage Operation Model (KABOM) is presented. This model is a tool for water resource management at the Kamuzu Barrage based on stochastic hydrology. The stochastic model uses water level readings at Lake Malawi and at the Shire River near Liwonde stretching from January 1900 to date. By using historical rating curves at Liwonde, and developing an updated post-2003 flood rating curve, the model can calculate flow at Liwonde for the entire period. The model simulates available water budgets for a range of probabilities based on the Lake Level and flow record over the past 115 years, plus available data on local inflows to the Shire River from its tributaries. The results provide a basis for choosing a release strategy in Kamuzu Barrage, which is used in optimizing the release at the barrage on daily basis. Resulting quantiles display a strong seasonal variation, highest Freewater forecasts within February and March in the rainy season, and the lowest months of June and July in dry season. The results for simulation are controlled against actual Freewater values in the period of December 2016 to October 2017, which demonstrates a satisfactory validation
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