When the distribution of the inter-arrival times of a renewal process is a mixture of geometric laws, we prove that the renewal function of the process is given by the moments of a probability measure which is explicitly related to the mixture distribution. We also present an analogous result in the continuous case when the inter-arrival law is a mixture of exponential laws. We then observe that the above discrete class of renewal processes provides a solvable family of random polymers. Namely, we obtain an exact representation of the partition function of polymers pinned at sites of the aforementioned renewal processes. In the particular case where the mixture measure is a generalized Arcsine law, the computations can be explicitly handled.
A uniform key renewal theorem is deduced from the uniform Blackwell's renewal theorem. A uniform LDP (large deviations principle) for renewal-reward processes is obtained, and MDP (moderate deviations principle) is deduced under conditions much weaker than existence of exponential moments.
We construct a family of processes, from a renewal process, that have realizations that converge almost surely to the Brownian motion, uniformly on the unit time interval. Finally we compute the rate of convergence in a particular case.
We review the theory of renewal reward processes, which describes renewal processes that have some cost or reward associated with each cycle. We present a new simplified proof of the renewal reward theorem that mimics the proof of the elementary renewal theorem and avoids the technicalities in the proof that is presented in most textbooks. Moreover, we mention briefly the extension of the theory to partial rewards, where it is assumed that rewards are not accrued only at renewal epochs but also during the renewal cycle. For this case, we present a counterexample which indicates that the standa…
We investigate weak convergence of renewal shot noise processes in the case of slowly varying tails of the inter-shot times. We show that these processes, after an appropriate non-linear scaling, converge in the sense of finite-dimensional distributions to an inverse extremal process.
Non-homogeneous renewal processes are not yet well established. One of the tools necessary for studying these processes is the non-homogeneous time convolution. Renewal theory has great relevance in general in economics and in particular in actuarial science, however most actuarial problems are connected with the age of the insured person. The introduction of non-homogeneity in the renewal processes brings actuarial applications closer to the real world. This paper will define the non-homogeneous time convolutions and try to give order to the non-homogeneous renewal processes. The numerical as…
We consider renewal shot noise processes with response functions which are eventually nondecreasing and regularly varying at infinity. We prove weak convergence of renewal shot noise processes, properly normalized and centered, in the space $D[0,\infty)$ under the $J_1$ or $M_1$ topology. The limiting processes are either spectrally nonpositive stable Lévy processes, including the Brownian motion, or inverse stable subordinators (when the response function is slowly varying), or fractionally integrated stable processes or fractionally integrated inverse stable subordinators (when the index of …
We study the asymptotic behaviour of Bahadur-Kiefer processes that are generated by summing partial sums of (weakly or strongly dependent) random variables and their renewals. Known results for i.i.d. case will be extended to dependent cases.
We study subexponential tail asymptotics for the distribution of the maximum $M_t:=\sup_{u\in[0,t]}X_u$ of a process $X_t$ with negative drift for the entire range of $t>0$. We consider compound renewal processes with linear drift and Lévy processes. For both we also formulate and prove the principle of a single big jump for their maxima. The class of compound renewal processes particularly includes Cramér-Lundberg risk process.
Some characterizations of mixed renewal processes in terms of exchangeability and of different types of disintegrations are given. As a consequence, an existence result for mixed renewal processes, providing also a new construction for them, is obtained. As an application, some concrete examples of constructing such processes are presented and the corresponding disintegrating measures are explicitly computed.
We consider the problem of determining escape probabilities from an interval of a general compound renewal process with drift. This problem is reduced to the solution of a certain integral equation. In an actuarial situation where only negative jumps arise we give a general solution for escape and survival probabilities under Erlang$(n)$ and hypo-exponential arrivals. These ideas are generalized to the class of arrival distributions having rational Laplace transforms. In a general situation with two-sided jumps we also identify important families of solvable cases. A parallelism with the "scal…
Large deviations principle is obtained for terminating multidimensional compound renewal processes. We also obtained the asymptotic of large deviations for the case when a Gibbs change of the original probability measure takes place. The random processes mentioned in the paper are widely used in polymer pinning models.
We consider a renewal process with regularly varying stationary and weakly dependent steps, and prove that the steps made before a given time $t$, satisfy an interesting invariance principle. Namely, together with the age of the renewal process at time $t$, they converge after scaling to the Pitman--Yor distribution. We further discuss how our results extend the classical Dynkin--Lamperti theorem.
Renewal theorems are developed for point processes with interarrival times $W_n=ξ(X_{n+1}X_n\cdots)$, where $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb Z}$ is a stochastic process with finite state space $Σ$ and $ξ\colonΣ_A\to\mathbb R$ is a Hölder continuous function on a subset $Σ_A\subsetΣ^{\mathbb N}$. The theorems developed here unify and generalise the key renewal theorem for discrete measures and Lalley's renewal theorem for counting measures in symbolic dynamics. Moreover, they capture aspects of Markov renewal theory. The new renewal theorems allow for direct applications to problems in fractal and hyperboli…
We show how a description of Brownian exponential functionals as a renewal series gives access to the law of the hitting time of a square-root boundary by a Bessel process. This extends classical results by Breiman and Shepp, concerning Brownian motion, and recovers by different means, extensions for Bessel processes, obtained independently by Delong and Yor.
In the present paper the change of measures technique for compound mixed renewal processes, developed in Tzaninis & Macheras [24], is applied to the ruin problem in order to compute the ruin probability and to find upper and lower bounds for it.
The standard functional central limit theorem for a renewal process with finite mean and variance, results in a Brownian motion limit. This note shows how to obtain a Brownian bridge process by a direct procedure that does not involve conditioning. Several examples are also considered.
We investigate large deviations for the empirical measure of the forward and backward recurrence time processes associated with a classical renewal process with arbitrary waiting-time distribution. The Donsker-Varadhan theory cannot be applied in this case, and indeed it turns out that the large deviations rate functional differs from the one suggested by such a theory. In particular, a non-strictly convex and non-analytic rate functional is obtained.
In this article we contribute to the moment analysis of branching processes in catalytic media. The many-to-few lemma based on the spine technique is used to derive a system of (discrete space) partial differential equations for the number of particles in a variation of constants formulation. The long-time behaviour is then deduced from renewal theorems and induction.
In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for analyzing this process. We consider the ordinary nonlinear Hawkes process as well as the more recently described age dependent Hawkes process. We construct renewal-times and establish moment results for these. This gives rise to study the Hawkes process as a Markov chain. As an application, we prove asymptotic results such as a functional CLT and a time-average CLT…
A famous result in renewal theory is the Central Limit Theorem for renewal processes. As in applications usually only observations from a finite time interval are available, a bound on the Kolmogorov distance to the normal distribution is desirable. Here we provide an explicit non-uniform bound for the Renewal Central Limit Theorem based on Stein's method and track the explicit values of the constants. For this bound the inter-arrival time distribution is required to have only a second moment. As an intermediate result of independent interest we obtain explicit bounds in a non-central Berry-Es…
Extensions of Kemeny's constant, as derived for irreducible finite Markov chains in discrete time, to Markov renewal processes and Markov chains in continuous time are discussed. Three alternative Kemeny's functions and their variants are considered. Typically, they lead to a constant if and only if the mean holding times between the states in the Markov renewal process are constant. However one particular variant leads to a constant, analogous to the discrete time Markov chain result. Specifically, if the state space is finite, the weighted sum of the mean first passage times (omitting the me…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of stochastic processes that are generated by sums of partial sums of i.i.d. random variables and their renewals. We conclude that these processes cannot converge weakly to any nondegenerate random element of the space $D[0,1]$. On the other hand we show that their properly normalized integrals as Vervaat-type stochastic processes converge weakly to a squared Wiener process. Moreover, we also deal with the asymptotic behaviour of the deviations of these processes, the so-called Vervaat-error type processes.
We use point processes theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of all upper order statistics for observations collected at renewal times. As a corollary, we obtain limiting theorems for corresponding extremal processes.
In queueing theory, Lorden's inequality can be used for bounds estimation of the moments of backward and forward renewal times. Two random variables called backwards renewal time and forward renewal time for this process are defined. Lorden's inequality it's true for the renewal process, so expectations of backward and forward renewal times are bounded by the relation of expectation of moment of the random variable for any fixed moment of time, where random variables are i.i.d. We generalised and proved a similar result for dependent random variables with finite expectations, some constant C a…
This article is devoted to the investigation of limit theorems for mixed max-sum processes with renewal type stopping indexes. Limit theorems of weak convergence type are obtained as well as functional limit theorems.
In this paper, we consider the perturbed renewal risk process. Systems of integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu functions at ruin caused by a claim and oscillation are established, respectively. The explicit Laplase transforms of Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained, while the closed form expressions for the Gerber-Shiu functions are derived when the claim amount distribution is from the rational family. Finally, we present numerical examples intended to illustrate the main results.
In this paper the class of mixed renewal processes (MRPs for short) with mixing parameter a random vector from \cite{lm6z3} (enlarging Huang's \cite{hu} original class) is replaced by the strictly more comprising class of all extended MRPs by adding a second mixing parameter. We prove under a mild assumption, that within this larger class the basic problem, whether every Markov process is a mixed Poisson process with a random variable as mixing parameter has a solution to the positive. This implies the equivalence of Markov processes, mixed Poisson processes, and processes with the multinomial…
A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions. In particular, the rate functional is in general degenerate (it has a nontrivial set of zeros) and not strictly convex. These features show a behavior highly different from what one may guess with a heuristic Donsker-Varadhan analysis of the problem.
The fractional Poisson process has recently attracted experts from several fields of study. Its natural generalization of the ordinary Poisson process made the model more appealing for real-world applications. In this paper, we generalized the standard and fractional Poisson processes through the waiting time distribution, and showed their relations to an integral operator with a generalized Mittag--Leffler function in the kernel. The waiting times of the proposed renewal processes have the generalized Mittag--Leffler and stretched-squashed Mittag--Leffler distributions. Note that the generali…
We continue the study of the compound renewal processes (c.r.p.), where the moment Cramer's condition holds (see [1]-[10], where the study of c.r.p. was started). In the paper arithmetic c.r.p. Z(n) are studied. In such processes random vector ξ = (τ,ζ) has the arithmetic distribution, where τ > 0 defines the distance between jumps, ζ defines the values of jumps. For this processes the fine asymptotics in the local limit theorem for probabilities P(Z(n) = x) has been obtained in Cramer's deviation region of x $\in$ Z. In [6]-[10] the similar problem has been solved for non-lattice c.r.p., when…
If the inter-arrival time distribution of a renewal process is regularly varying with index $α\in\left( 0,1\right) $ (i.e. the inter-arrival times have infinite mean) and if $A\left( t\right) $ is the associated age process at time $t$. Then we show that if $C\left( t\right) $ is the length of the current cycle at time $t$, \[ A\left( t\right) /C\left( t\right) \Rightarrow U^{1/α}, \] where $U$ is $U\left( 0,1\right) $. This extends a classical result in renewal theory in the finite mean case which indicates that the limit is $U\left( 0,1\right) $.
A binary renewal process is a stochastic process $\{X_n\}$ taking values in $\{0,1\}$ where the lengths of the runs of 1's between successive zeros are independent. After observing ${X_0,X_1,...,X_n}$ one would like to predict the future behavior, and the problem of universal estimators is to do so without any prior knowledge of the distribution. We prove a variety of results of this type, including universal estimates for the expected time to renewal as well as estimates for the conditional distribution of the time to renewal. Some of our results require a moment condition on the time to rene…
The paper deals with renewal theory for a class of extremal Markov sequences connected with the Kendall convolution. We consider here some particular cases of the Wold processes associated with generalized convolutions. We prove an analogue of the Fredholm theorem for all regular generalized convolutions algebras. Using regularly varying functions we prove a Blackwell theorem for renewal processes defined by Kendall random walks.
We study two rumor processes on $\N$, the dynamics of which are related to an SI epidemic model with long range transmission. Both models start with one spreader at site $0$ and ignorants at all the other sites of $\N$, but differ by the transmission mechanism. In one model, the spreaders transmit the information within a random distance on their right, and in the other the ignorants take the information from a spreader within a random distance on their left. We obtain the probability of survival, information on the distribution of the range of the rumor and limit theorems for the proportion o…
Here we propose the Donsker-Varadhan-type compactness conditions and prove the joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and empirical flow of Markov renewal processes (semi-Markov processes) with a countable state space, generalizing the relevant results for continuous-time Markov chains with a countable state space obtained in [Ann. Inst. H. Poincaré Probab. Statist. 51, 867-900 (2015)] and [Stoch. Proc. Appl. 125, 2786-2819 (2015)], as well as the relevant results for Markov renewal processes with a finite state space obtained in [Adv. Appl. Probab. 48, 648-671 (2016)]. In p…
We consider a renewal-reward process with multivariate rewards. Such a process is constructed from an i.i.d.\ sequence of time periods, to each of which there is associated a multivariate reward vector. The rewards in each time period may depend on each other and on the period length, but not on the other time periods. Rewards are accumulated to form a vector valued process that exhibits jumps in all coordinates simultaneously, only at renewal epochs. We derive an asymptotically exact expression for the covariance function (over time) of the rewards, which is used to refine a central limit the…
The ability to estimate the rate of convergence for the distributions of regenerative processes is in great demand. These processes are often encountered in queuing theory and in related problems. In some papers on regenerative processes, the coupling method and subsequent estimation of the convergence rate is used. In the presented small publication, we describe a general approach to using the coupling method for regenerative processes - both in the case of a polynomial and an exponential rate of convergence.
Martingales constitute a basic tool in stochastic analysis; this paper considers their application to counting processes. We use this tool to revisit a renewal theorem and its extensions for various counting processes. We first consider a renewal process as a pilot example, deriving a new semimartingale representation that differs from the standard decomposition via the stochastic intensity function. We then revisit Blackwell's renewal theorem, its refinements and extensions. Based on these observations, we extend the semimartingale representation to a general counting process, and give condit…
The article describes the limiting distribution of the extremes of observations that arrive in clusters. We start by studying the tail behaviour of an individual cluster and then we apply the developed theory to determine the limiting distribution of $\max\{X_j: j=0,\ldots, K(t)\}$, where $K(t)$ is the number of i.i.d. observations $(X_j)$ arriving up to the time $t$ according to a general marked renewal cluster process. The results are illustrated in the context of some commonly used Poisson cluster models such as the marked Hawkes process.
Inspired by the double-debt problem in Japan where the mortgagor has to pay the remaining loan even if their house was destroyed by a catastrophic event, we model the lender's cash flow, by an exponential functional of a renewal-reward process. We propose an insurance add-on to the loan repayments and analyse the asymptotic behavior of the distribution of the first hitting time, which represents the probability of full repayment. We show that the finite-time probability of full loan repayment converges exponentially fast to the infinite-time one. In a few concrete scenarios, we calculate the e…
Subordinating a random walk to a renewal process yields a continuous time random walk (CTRW) model for diffusion, including the possibility of anomalous diffusion. Transition densities of scaling limits of power law CTRWs have been shown to solve fractional Fokker-Planck equations. We consider limits of sequences of CTRWs which arise when both waiting times and jumps are taken from an infinitesimal triangular array. We identify two different limit processes $X_t$ and $Y_t$ when waiting times precede or follow jumps, respectively. In the limiting procedure, we keep track of the renewal times of…
This article describes an accurate procedure for computing the mean first passage times of a finite irreducible Markov chain and a Markov renewal process. The method is a refinement to the Kohlas, Zeit fur Oper Res, 30,197-207, (1986) procedure. The technique is numerically stable in that it doesn't involve subtractions. Algebraic expressions for the special cases of one, two, three and four states are derived. A consequence of the procedure is that the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain does not need to be derived in advance but can be found accurately from the derived mean …
We show that a large class of stationary continuous-time regenerative processes are finitarily isomorphic to one another. The key is showing that any stationary renewal point process whose jump distribution is absolutely continuous with exponential tails is finitarily isomorphic to a Poisson point process. We further give simple necessary and sufficient conditions for a renewal point process to be finitarily isomorphic to a Poisson point process. This improves results and answers several questions of Soo and of Kosloff and Soo.
Let W be the number of points in (0,t] of a stationary finite-state Markov renewal point process. We derive a bound for the total variation distance between the distribution of W and a compound Poisson distribution. For any nonnegative random variable ζ, we construct a ``strong memoryless time'' \hat ζsuch that ζ-t is exponentially distributed conditional on {\hat ζ\leq t, ζ>t}, for each t. This is used to embed the Markov renewal point process into another such process whose state space contains a frequently observed state which represents loss of memory in the original process. We then write…
This paper presents a set of results relating to the occupation time $α(t)$ of a process $X(\cdot)$. The first set of results concerns exact characterizations of $α(t)$ for $t\geq0$, e.g., in terms of its transform up to an exponentially distributed epoch. In addition we establish a central limit theorem (entailing that a centered and normalized version of $α(t)/t$ converges to a zero-mean Normal random variable as $t\rightarrow\infty$) and the tail asymptotics of $P(α(t)/t\geq q)$. We apply our findings to spectrally positive Lévy processes reflected at the infimum and establish various new o…
We consider the process $\{x-N(t):t\geq 0\}$, where $x\in\mathbb{R}_+$ and $\{N(t):t\geq 0\}$ is a renewal process with light-tailed distributed holding times. We are interested in the joint distribution of $(τ(x),A(x))$ where $τ(x)$ is the first-passage time of $\{x-N(t):t\geq 0\}$ to reach zero or a negative value, and $A(x):=\int_0^{τ(x)}(x-N(t))dt$ is the corresponding first-passage (positive) area swept out by the process $\{x-N(t):t\geq 0\}$. We remark that we can define the sequence $\{(τ(n),A(n)):n\geq 1\}$ by referring to the concept of integrated random walk. Our aim is to prove asym…
