千禧年繁荣，婴儿萧条和住房市场
The Millennial Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market
摘要：
随着婴儿潮一代开始缩小规模和退休，他们的偏好现在与千禧一代对城市设施和较小生活空间的偏好重叠。美国人口中最大的两个年龄段之间的品味融合有意义地改变了美国房价的演变。利用人口驱动的需求冲击的巴蒂克转移-份额工具，我们表明，从2000年到2018年，（i）四居室和五居室房屋的价格增长落后于一居室和两居室房屋的价格，（ii）在当地劳动力市场内，与千禧一代富裕的社区相比，婴儿潮富裕的邮政编码的相对房价有所下降，以及（iii）拥有最大相对比例的小型住宅的邮政编码增长最快。这些模式在最近的经济周期中变得更加明显。我们发现，这些影响集中在住房供应最缺乏弹性的地区。如果住房市场的这种模式持续下去或扩大，55岁以上的户主家庭持有的约16.5万亿不动产财富将受到重大影响。我们发现，几乎没有证据表明这些即将到来的变化已被纳入当前的价格。
英文摘要：
As baby boomers have begun to downsize and retire, their preferences now overlap with millennials' predilection for urban amenities and smaller living spaces. This confluence in tastes between the two largest age segments of the U.S. population has meaningfully changed the evolution of home prices in the United States. Utilizing a Bartik shift-share instrument for demography-driven demand shocks, we show that from 2000 to 2018 (i) the price growth of four- and five-bedroom houses has lagged the prices of one- and two-bedroom homes, (ii) within local labor markets, the relative home prices in baby boomer-rich zip codes have declined compared with millennial-rich neighborhoods, and (iii) the zip codes with the largest relative share of smaller homes have grown fastest. These patterns have become more pronounced during the latest economic cycle. We show that the effects are concentrated in areas where housing supply is most inelastic. If this pattern in the housing market persists or expands, the approximately 16.5 trillion in real estate wealth held by households headed by those aged 55 or older will be significantly affected. We find little evidence that these upcoming changes have been incorporated into current prices.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
