探索COVID-19遏制政策对犯罪的影响--对洛杉矶短期后果的实证分析
Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles
摘要：
这项工作调查了COVID-19遏制政策是否以及如何对洛杉矶的犯罪趋势产生了直接影响。该分析使用贝叶斯结构时间序列进行，重点关注九种犯罪类别和总体犯罪数量，从2017年1月1日至2020年3月28日每日监测。我们集中在两个干预后时间窗口-2020年3月4日至3月16日和3月4日至3月28日-动态评估温和和严格政策的短期效果。在洛杉矶，整体犯罪率大幅下降，抢劫、商店行窃、盗窃和殴打也大幅下降。没有发现对车辆盗窃、入室盗窃、使用致命武器袭击、亲密伴侣袭击和杀人的重大影响。结果表明，在干预措施实施后的第一周，社会距离对工具性犯罪和不太严重的犯罪产生更直接的影响。政策影响也进行了讨论。
英文摘要：
This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows - from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020 - to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
