确定可操作的气候变化缓解政策的特征重要性
Determining feature importance for actionable climate change mitigation policies
摘要：
鉴于公众支持政策变化和执行的重要性，公共政策制定者和研究人员试图了解与这种支持气候变化减缓政策相关的因素。在这篇文章中，我们比较了使用不同的监督学习方法进行回归的可行性，使用一个新的社会经济数据集来衡量公众对潜在气候变化减缓政策的支持。在此模型选择之后，我们利用梯度推进回归，这是机器学习界的一种众所周知的技术，但在公共政策和民意研究中相对不常见，并试图了解在以前的研究中检查的几个因素中，哪些因素对气候变化研究中公众对减缓政策的支持最为重要。这种方法的使用提供了新的见解，公众支持气候变化减缓政策的最重要的因素。使用国家调查数据，我们发现，与气候变化相关的感知风险对于塑造公众对促进可再生能源和监管污染物的政策选择的支持更具决定性。然而，我们观察到与公众支持增加核能使用有关的非常不同的行为，其中气候变化风险感知不再是唯一的决定性特征。我们的研究结果表明，公众对可再生能源的支持与对核能依赖的支持有本质的不同，前者对气候变化的风险认知占主导地位，后者则扮演着次要角色。
英文摘要：
Given the importance of public support for policy change and implementation, public policymakers and researchers have attempted to understand the factors associated with this support for climate change mitigation policy. In this article, we compare the feasibility of using different supervised learning methods for regression using a novel socio-economic data set which measures public support for potential climate change mitigation policies. Following this model selection, we utilize gradient boosting regression, a well-known technique in the machine learning community, but relatively uncommon in public policy and public opinion research, and seek to understand what factors among the several examined in previous studies are most central to shaping public support for mitigation policies in climate change studies. The use of this method provides novel insights into the most important factors for public support for climate change mitigation policies. Using national survey data, we find that the perceived risks associated with climate change are more decisive for shaping public support for policy options promoting renewable energy and regulating pollutants. However, we observe a very different behavior related to public support for increasing the use of nuclear energy where climate change risk perception is no longer the sole decisive feature. Our findings indicate that public support for renewable energy is inherently different from that for nuclear energy reliance with the risk perception of climate change, dominant for the former, playing a subdued role for the latter.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
