In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative effectiveness of alternative treatment paths. For a rich class of dynamic causal effects, we provide a nonparametric estimator that is unbiased over the randomization distribution and derive its finite population limiting distribution as either the sample size or the duration of the experiment increases. We develop two methods for inference: a conservative test for weak null hypotheses and an exact randomization test for sharp null hypotheses. We further analyze the finite population probability limit of linear fixed effects estimators. These commonly-used estimators do not recover a causally interpretable estimand if there are dynamic causal effects and serial correlation in the assignments, highlighting the value of our proposed estimator.
Causal Data Fusion for Panel Data without a Pre-Intervention Period
Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences, Boston University（波士顿大学计算与数据科学学院）；Division of Infectious Diseases, Boston Children’s Hospital & Harvard Medical School（波士顿儿童医院感染病科及哈佛医学院）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University（波士顿大学数学与统计系）
Researchers are often challenged with assessing the impact of an intervention on an outcome of interest in situations where the intervention is non-randomised, the intervention is only applied to one or few units, the intervention is binary, and outcome measurements are available at multiple time points. In this paper, we review existing methods for causal inference in these situations. We detail the assumptions underlying each method, emphasize connections between the different approaches and provide guidelines regarding their practical implementation. Several open problems are identified thu…
This study proposes a new Bayesian approach to infer binary treatment effects. The approach treats counterfactual untreated outcomes as missing observations and infers them by completing a matrix composed of realized and potential untreated outcomes using a data augmentation technique. We also develop a tailored prior that helps in the identification of parameters and induces the matrix of untreated outcomes to be approximately low rank. Posterior draws are simulated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. While the proposed approach is similar to synthetic control methods and other related …
Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Data with Instrumental Variables: New Method and Applications
Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University（伊拉斯谟斯大学经济研究生院）；Tinbergen Institute（丁伯根研究所）；Department of Business Analytics and Applied Economics, Queen Mary University of London（伦敦大学玛丽女王学院商业分析与应用经济学系）；Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex（埃塞克斯大学社会与经济研究所）
本文提出静态面板模型中处理内生处理的双重机器学习估计器（panel IV DML），并引入弱识别诊断，通过三个迁移研究验证其在高维非线性影响下的稳健性与准确性。
We present an overview of the decision-theoretic framework of statistical causality, which is well-suited for formulating and solving problems of determining the effects of applied causes. The approach is described in detail, and is related to and contrasted with other current formulations, such as structural equation models and potential responses. Topics and applications covered include confounding, the effect of treatment on the treated, instrumental variables, and dynamic treatment strategies.
In this paper, we adopt results in nonlinear time series analysis for causal inference in dynamical settings.~Our motivation is policy analysis with panel data, particularly through the use of "synthetic control" methods. These methods regress pre-intervention outcomes of the treated unit to outcomes from a pool of control units, and then use the fitted regression model to estimate causal effects post-intervention. In this setting, we propose to screen out control units that have a weak dynamical relationship to the treated unit. In simulations, we show that this method can mitigate bias from …
In this review, we discuss approaches for learning causal structure from data, also called causal discovery. In particular, we focus on approaches for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and various generalizations which allow for some variables to be unobserved in the available data. We devote special attention to two fundamental combinatorial aspects of causal structure learning. First, we discuss the structure of the search space over causal graphs. Second, we discuss the structure of equivalence classes over causal graphs, i.e., sets of graphs which represent what can be learned from o…
Inferring causal effects of treatments is a central goal in many disciplines. The potential outcomes framework is a main statistical approach to causal inference, in which a causal effect is defined as a comparison of the potential outcomes of the same units under different treatment conditions. Because for each unit at most one of the potential outcomes is observed and the rest are missing, causal inference is inherently a missing data problem. Indeed, there is a close analogy in the terminology and the inferential framework between causal inference and missing data. Despite the intrinsic con…
This paper presents a topological learning-theoretic perspective on causal inference by introducing a series of topologies defined on general spaces of structural causal models (SCMs). As an illustration of the framework we prove a topological causal hierarchy theorem, showing that substantive assumption-free causal inference is possible only in a meager set of SCMs. Thanks to a known correspondence between open sets in the weak topology and statistically verifiable hypotheses, our results show that inductive assumptions sufficient to license valid causal inferences are statistically unverifia…
We propose a new perspective for the evaluation of matching procedures by considering the complexity of the function class they belong to. Under this perspective we provide theoretical guarantees on post-matching covariate balance through a finite sample concentration inequality. We apply this framework to coarsened exact matching as well as matching using the propensity score and suggest how to apply it to other algorithms. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the procedures.
Split-plot designs find wide applicability in multifactor experiments with randomization restrictions. Practical considerations often warrant the use of unbalanced designs. This paper investigates randomization based causal inference in split-plot designs that are possibly unbalanced. Extension of ideas from the recently studied balanced case yields an expression for the sampling variance of a treatment contrast estimator as well as a conservative estimator of the sampling variance. However, the bias of this variance estimator does not vanish even when the treatment effects are strictly additi…
The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that explicitly targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Towards the same ends, studying the causal pathway connecting the treatment to the outcome can be also useful. This paper addresses these problems in the context of \emph{causal mediation analysis}. We introduce a varying coefficient model based on Bayesian additive regression trees to identify and regularize heterogeneous causal mediation effects; analogously with linear structural equation models, these …
Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Models with Fixed Effects
Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex（埃塞克斯大学社会与经济研究所）；Institute for Analytics and Data Science, University of Essex（埃塞克斯大学分析与数据科学研究所）
ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the underlying algorithmic fairness problem. Specifically, we assess whether COMPAS exhibits racial bias against African American defendants using FACT, a recently introduced causality grounded measure of algorithmic fairness. We use the Neyman-Rubin potential outcomes framework for ca…
LIVIA, École de Technologie Supérieure（LIVIA，高等工程技术学院）；Graduate Program in Informatics (PPGIa), Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (PUCPR)（信息学研究生项目（PPGIa），巴拉那天主教大学（PUCPR））
The incorporation of causal inference in mediation analysis has led to theoretical and methodological advancements -- effect definitions with causal interpretation, clarification of assumptions required for effect identification, and an expanding array of options for effect estimation. However, the literature on these results is fast-growing and complex, which may be confusing to researchers unfamiliar with causal inference or unfamiliar with mediation. The goal of this paper is to help ease the understanding and adoption of causal mediation analysis. It starts by highlighting a key difference…
Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad（印度理工学院海得拉巴分校）
We propose a new attribution method for neural networks developed using first principles of causality (to the best of our knowledge, the first such). The neural network architecture is viewed as a Structural Causal Model, and a methodology to compute the causal effect of each feature on the output is presented. With reasonable assumptions on the causal structure of the input data, we propose algorithms to efficiently compute the causal effects, as well as scale the approach to data with large dimensionality. We also show how this method can be used for recurrent neural networks. We report expe…
We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the later-treated using a matrix completion estimator. We propose a novel propensity-score and elapsed-time weighting of the estimator's objective function to correct for differences in the observed covariate and unobserved fixed effects distributions, and elapsed time since treatment between groups. Our methodology is motivated by studying the effect of two milestones…
The representation of the flow of information between neurons in the brain based on their activity is termed the causal functional connectome. Such representation incorporates the dynamic nature of neuronal activity and causal interactions between them. In contrast to connectome, the causal functional connectome is not directly observed and needs to be inferred from neural time series. A popular statistical framework for inferring causal connectivity from observations is the directed probabilistic graphical modeling. Its common formulation is not suitable for neural time series since was devel…
The relationship between democracy and economic growth is of long-standing interest. We revisit the panel data analysis of this relationship by Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo and Robinson (forthcoming) using state of the art econometric methods. We argue that this and lots of other panel data settings in economics are in fact high-dimensional, resulting in principal estimators -- the fixed effects (FE) and Arellano-Bond (AB) estimators -- to be biased to the degree that invalidates statistical inference. We can however remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and…
Survey scientists increasingly face the problem of high-dimensionality in their research as digitization makes it much easier to construct high-dimensional (or "big") data sets through tools such as online surveys and mobile applications. Machine learning methods are able to handle such data, and they have been successfully applied to solve \emph{predictive} problems. However, in many situations, survey statisticians want to learn about \emph{causal} relationships to draw conclusions and be able to transfer the findings of one survey to another. Standard machine learning methods provide biased…
