如何模拟蜜蜂种群动力学：阶段结构和季节性
How to model honeybee population dynamics: stage structure and seasonality
摘要：
西方蜜蜂（Apis Mellifera）在我们的生态系统和经济中发挥着极其重要的作用，因为它们每年在世界各地为2150亿美元授粉。不幸的是，蜜蜂的数量和它们的殖民地已经急剧下降。本文的目的是探讨如何建立具有年龄结构的蜜蜂种群模型，并利用经验数据对模型进行验证，以确定影响蜂群生存和健康的不同因素。我们的理论研究结合模拟和数据验证表明，适当的年龄结构纳入模型和季节性是重要的建模蜜蜂种群。具体来说，我们的工作意味着模型假设（1）成年蜜蜂从{卵种群}而不是育雏种群中存活下来;（2）蜂王产卵率的季节性，比其他蜜蜂模型更适合。对最佳拟合模型的相关理论和数值分析表明：（a）蜂群的生存除了需要适当的初始条件外，还需要较大的蜂王产卵率和较小的其它生活史〈动〉<动>参数值：（b）随着蜂王产卵率的增大和其它参数值的减小，蜂种和成蜂的种群数量都在增加;和（c）季节性可促进/抑制蜂群的存活。
英文摘要：
Western honeybees (Apis Mellifera) serve extremely important roles in our ecosystem and economics as they are responsible for pollinating $ 215 billion dollars annually over the world. Unfortunately, honeybee population and their colonies have been declined dramatically. The purpose of this article is to explore how we should model honeybee population with age structure and validate the model using empirical data so that we can identify different factors that lead to the survival and healthy of the honeybee colony. Our theoretical study combined with simulations and data validation suggests that the proper age structure incorporated in the model and seasonality are important for modeling honeybee population. Specifically, our work implies that the model assuming that (1) the adult bees are survived from the {egg population} rather than the brood population; and (2) seasonality in the queen egg laying rate, give the better fit than other honeybee models. The related theoretical and numerical analysis of the most fit model indicate that (a) the survival of honeybee colonies requires a large queen egg-laying rate and smaller values of the other life history parameter values in addition to proper initial condition; (b) both brood and adult bee populations are increasing with respect to the increase in the {egg-laying rate} and the decreasing in other parameter values; and (c) seasonality may promote/suppress the survival of the honeybee colony.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
