用评级和贝叶斯网络调查亚洲差点足球博彩市场的效率
Investigating the efficiency of the Asian handicap football betting market with ratings and Bayesian networks
摘要：
尽管亚洲差点（AH）足球（足球）博彩市场非常受欢迎，但其效率尚未得到相关文献的充分研究。本文结合评级系统与贝叶斯网络，并提出了第一个公布的模型专门开发的预测和评估的AH博彩市场的效率。结果基于13个英超赛季，并与传统市场进行比较，其中投注是赢，输或平局。我们研究了不同的投注情况，包括a）平均和最大（最佳可用）市场赔率，b）预测和公布赔率之间的所有可能的投注决策阈值，c）投资回报和利润的优化，以及d）简单的股权调整，以调查在传统和AH市场中以同等利润为目标时回报的方差如何变化。虽然AH市场被发现分享传统市场的低效率，研究结果揭示了两者之间有趣的差异以及相似之处。
英文摘要：
Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents the first published model specifically developed for prediction and assessment of the efficiency of the AH betting market. The results are based on 13 English Premier League seasons and are compared to the traditional market, where the bets are for win, lose or draw. Different betting situations have been examined including a) both average and maximum (best available) market odds, b) all possible betting decision thresholds between predicted and published odds, c) optimisations for both return-on-investment and profit, and d) simple stake adjustments to investigate how the variance of returns changes when targeting equivalent profit in both traditional and AH markets. While the AH market is found to share the inefficiencies of the traditional market, the findings reveal both interesting differences as well as similarities between the two.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
