Effective utilization of flexible loads for grid services, while satisfying end-user preferences and constraints, requires an accurate estimation of the aggregated predictive flexibility offered by the electrical loads. Virtual battery (VB) models are often used to quantify the predictive flexibility in thermostatic loads (e.g. residential air-conditioners, electric water-heaters), which model the temporal evolution of a (virtual) energy state via a first order dynamics including self-dissipation rate, and power and energy capacities as parameters. Uncertainties and lack of information regarding end-usage and equipment models render deterministic VB models impractical. In this paper, we introduce the notion of stochastic VB models, and propose a \textit{variational autoencoder}-based deep learning algorithm to identify the probability distribution of the VB model parameters. Using available sensors and meters data, the proposed algorithm generates not only point estimates of the VB parameters, but also confidence intervals around those values. Effectiveness of the proposed frameworks is demonstrated on a collection of electric water-heater loads, whose operation is driven by uncertain water usage profiles.
ML Collective（机器学习联盟）；National Institute of Science Education and Research, Bhubaneswar（布巴内斯瓦尔国家科学教育与研究学院）；Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai（孟买霍米·巴巴国立研究所）；M S Ramaiah Institute of Technology（M S Ramaiah理工学院）
Lithium-ion batteries are powering the ongoing transportation electrification revolution. Lithium-ion batteries possess higher energy density and favourable electrochemical properties which make it a preferable energy source for electric vehicles. Precise estimation of battery parameters (Charge capacity, voltage etc) is vital to estimate the available range in an electric vehicle. Graph-based estimation techniques enable us to understand the variable dependencies underpinning them to improve estimates. In this paper we employ Graph Neural Networks for battery parameter estimation, we introduc…
Buildings are a promising source of flexibility for the application of demand response. In this work, we introduce a novel battery model formulation to capture the state evolution of a single building. Being fully data-driven, the battery model identification requires one dataset from a period of nominal controller operation, and one from a period with flexibility requests, without making any assumptions on the underlying controller structure. We consider parameter uncertainty in the model formulation and show how to use risk measures to encode risk preferences of the user in robust uncertaint…
A novel smart metering technique capable of anomaly detection was proposed for real-time home power management system. Smart meter data generated in real-time was obtained from 900 households of single apartments. To detect outliers and missing values in smart meter data, a deep learning model, the autoencoder, consisting of a graph convolutional network and bidirectional long short-term memory network, was applied to the smart metering technique. Power management based on the smart metering technique was performed by multi-objective optimization in the presence of a battery storage system and…
Accurate tracking of the internal electrochemical states of lithium-ion battery during cycling enables advanced battery management systems to operate the battery safely and maintain high performance while minimizing battery degradation. To this end, techniques based on voltage measurement have shown promise for estimating the lithium surface concentration of active material particles, which is an important state for avoiding aging mechanisms such as lithium plating. However, methods relying on voltage often lead to large estimation errors when the model parameters change during aging. In this …
Battery energy storage systems (ESS) are widely used in microgrids to complement high renewables. However, the real-time energy management of microgrids with battery ESS is challenging in two aspects: 1) the evolution process of battery energy level is across-time coupled; 2) uncertainties unavoidably arise in the forecasting process for renewable generation. In this paper, a tube-based model predictive control (MPC) approach is innovatively proposed in accommodating the real-time energy management of microgrids with battery ESS. Firstly, a real-time operation model of battery, including the d…
Optimizing Experiments for Accurate Battery Circuit Parameters Estimation: Reduction and Adjustment of Frequency Set Used in Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy
In this paper, we develop a model to plan energy-efficient speed trajectories of electric trucks in real-time by taking into account the information of topography and traffic ahead of the vehicle. In this real time control model, a novel state-space model is first developed to capture vehicle speed, acceleration, and state of charge. We then formulate an energy minimization problem and solve it by an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) method that exploits the structure of the problem. A model predictive control framework is then employed to deal with topographic and traffic unc…
This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for probabilistic estimation of the electric vehicle battery capacity fade. Since the battery aging factors such as temperature, current, and state of charge are not fixed, and they change in different times, locations and by the different users, deterministic models with constant parameters cannot accurately evaluate the battery capacity fade. Therefore, a probabilistic presentation of the capacity fade including uncertainties of the measurements or observations of the variables can be a proper solution. We have developed a hierarchical Bayesi…
We study operations of a battery energy storage system under a baseline-based demand response (DR) program with an uncertain schedule of DR events. Baseline-based DR programs may provide undesired incentives to inflate baseline consumption in non-event days, in order to increase "apparent" DR reduction in event days and secure higher DR payments. Our goal is to identify and quantify such incentives. To understand customer decisions, we formulate the problem of determining hourly battery charging and discharge schedules to minimize expected net costs, defined as energy purchase costs minus ener…
Real-time Building Energy Storage Scheduling under Electrical Load Uncertainty: A Dynamic Markov Decision Process Approach with Comprehensive Analysis of Different Pricing Policies
Improvements in rechargeable batteries are enabling several electric urban air mobility (UAM) aircraft designs with up to 300 miles of range with payload equivalents of up to 7 passengers. We find that novel UAM aircraft consume between 130 Wh/passenger-mile up to ~1,200 Wh/passenger-mile depending on the design and utilization, relative to an expected consumption of over 220 Wh/passenger-mi for terrestrial electric vehicles and 1,000 Wh/passenger-mile for combustion engine vehicles. We also find that several UAM aircraft designs are approaching technological viability with current Li-ion batt…
Battery management systems may rely on mathematical models to provide higher performance than standard charging protocols. Electrochemical models allow us to capture the phenomena occurring inside a lithium-ion cell and therefore, could be the best model choice. However, to be of practical value, they require reliable model parameters. Uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design concepts are essential tools for identifying systems and estimating parameters precisely. Approximation errors in uncertainty quantification result in sub-optimal experimental designs and consequently, l…
The objective of this work is to reduce the storage dimensions required to operate a coupled photovoltaic (PV) and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in an electricity market, while keeping the same level of performance. Performance is measured either with the amount of errors between the energy sold on the market and the actual generation of the PV/BESS i.e. the imbalance, or directly with the revenue generated on the electricity market from the PV/BESS operation. Two solutions are proposed and tested to reduce the BESS size requirement. The first solution is to participate in electricity m…
