A machine learning algorithm is developed to forecast the CO2 emission intensities in electrical power grids in the Danish bidding zone DK2, distinguishing between average and marginal emissions. The analysis was done on data set comprised of a large number (473) of explanatory variables such as power production, demand, import, weather conditions etc. collected from selected neighboring zones. The number was reduced to less than 50 using both LASSO (a penalized linear regression analysis) and a forward feature selection algorithm. Three linear regression models that capture different aspects of the data (non-linearities and coupling of variables etc.) were created and combined into a final model using Softmax weighted average. Cross-validation is performed for debiasing and autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) implemented to correct the residuals, making the final model the variant with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX). The forecasts with the corresponding uncertainties are given for two time horizons, below and above six hours. Marginal emissions came up independent of any conditions in the DK2 zone, suggesting that the marginal generators are located in the neighbouring zones.
The developed methodology can be applied to any bidding zone in the European electricity network without requiring detailed knowledge about the zone.
We demonstrate progress on the deployment of two sets of technologies to support distribution grid operators integrating high shares of renewable energy sources, based on a market for trading local energy flexibilities. An artificial-intelligence (AI) grid modelling tool, based on probabilistic graphs, predicts congestions and estimates the amount and location of energy flexibility required to avoid such events. A scalable time-series forecasting system delivers large numbers of short-term predictions of distributed energy demand and generation. We discuss the deployment of the technologies at…
With the development of modern information technology (IT), a smart grid has become one of the major components of smart cities. To take full advantage of the smart grid, the capability of intelligent scheduling and planning of electricity delivery is essential. In practice, many factors have an impact on electricity consumption, which necessitates information fusion technologies for a thorough understanding. For this purpose, researchers have investigated methodologies for collecting electricity consumption related information and variant multi-factor power consumption forecasting models. In …
Battery-based energy storage has emerged as an enabling technology for a variety of grid energy optimizations, such as peak shaving and cost arbitrage. A key component of battery-driven peak shaving optimizations is peak forecasting, which predicts the hours of the day that see the greatest demand. While there has been significant prior work on load forecasting, we argue that the problem of predicting periods where the demand peaks for individual consumers or micro-grids is more challenging than forecasting load at a grid scale. We propose a new model for peak forecasting, based on deep learni…
Time series forecasting based on optimized LLM for fault prediction in distribution power grid insulators
Center of Technology and Systems (UNINOVA-CTS)（技术与系统中心（UNINOVA-CTS））；Associated Lab of Intelligent Systems (LASI)（智能系统联合实验室（LASI））；Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Regina（里贾纳大学工程与应用科学学院）
We present a physics-informed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model to predict the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power from a limited number of measurements. In the traditional data-driven GPR method, the form of the Gaussian Process covariance matrix is assumed and its parameters are found from measurements. In the physics-informed GPR, we treat unknown variables (including wind speed and mechanical power) as a random process and compute the covariance matrix from the resulting stochastic power grid equations. We demonstrate that the physics-informed GPR method is signific…
Power grids play a very important role in delivering electrical energy to homes, industries and other places that require it. Because of this increased demand they are facing a great challenge of voltage variations. This happens due to varied use of energy-consuming devices and appliances like electric vehicles, industrial consumption, occasional peak in energy demands etc. For these fluctuations in demands, it becomes extremely important to monitor the conditions at which the power grid operates. Once these conditions are known, the energy production can be manipulated to meet the demand. It …
Renewable-energy-based grids development needs new methods to maintain the balance between the load and generation using the efficient energy storages models. Most of the available energy storages models do not take into account such important features as the nonlinear dependence of efficiency on lifetime and changes in capacity over time horizon, the distribution of load between several independent storages. In order to solve these problems the Volterra integral dynamical models are employed. Such models allow to determine the alternating power function for given/forecasted load and generatio…
Smart grids technologies are enablers of new business models for domestic consumers with local flexibility (generation, loads, storage) and where access to data is a key requirement in the value stream. However, legislation on personal data privacy and protection imposes the need to develop local models for flexibility modeling and forecasting and exchange models instead of personal data. This paper describes the functional architecture of an home energy management system (HEMS) and its optimization functions. A set of data-driven models, embedded in the HEMS, are discussed for improving renew…
GE Research（通用电气研究中心）；Upstart Power（Upstart Power公司）
Predicting the demand for electricity with uncertainty helps in planning and operation of the grid to provide reliable supply of power to the consumers. Machine learning (ML)-based demand forecasting approaches can be categorized into (1) sample-based approaches, where each forecast is made independently, and (2) time series regression approaches, where some historical load and other feature information is used. When making a short-to-mid-term electricity demand forecast, some future information is available, such as the weather forecast and calendar variables. However, in existing forecasting…
The high variability of weather parameters is making photovoltaic energy generation intermittent and narrowly controllable. Threatened by the sudden discontinuity between the load and the grid, energy management for smart grid systems highly require an accurate PV power forecasting model. In this regard, Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) is one of the few potential models that handle time series analysis for long-horizon prediction. This later is efficient and high-performing. However, this model often suffers from the vanishing gradient problem which limits its performances. Thus, thi…
Solar power becomes one of the most promising renewable energy resources in recent years. However, the weather is continuously changing, and this causes a discontinuity of energy generation. PV Power forecasting is a suitable solution to handle sudden disjointedness on energy generation by providing fast dispatching to grid electricity. These methods present a key insight into matchmaking grid electricity and photovoltaic plants. Bootstrap aggregation Ensemble method(Bagging) is classified as one of the most useful machine learning models which are applicable to supervised learning regression …
This paper introduces a Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter in which the intensities of target birth and undetected targets are grid-based. A simplified version of the Rao-Blackwellized point mass filter is used to predict the intensity of undetected targets, and the density of targets detected for the first time are approximated as Gaussian. Whereas conventional PMBM filter implementations typically use Gaussian mixtures to model the intensity of undetected targets, the proposed representation allows the intensity to vary over the region of interest with sharp edges around the senso…
The widespread utilisation of grid-integrated wind electricity necessitates accurate and reliable wind speed forecasting to ensure stable grid and quality power. Machine learning algorithm based wind speed forecasting models are getting increased attention in the literature owing to its superior ability to learn by effectively capturing the changing patterns from the data. Most of the reported wind forecasting models built on machine learning algorithms are location specific and tested against data adjacent to the training data. In this work, we develop the machine learning based wind speed fo…
Solar power becomes one of the most promising renewable energy sources over the years leading up. Nevertheless, the weather is causing periodicity and volatility to photovoltaic (PV) energy production. Thus, Forecasting the PV power is crucial for maintaining sustainability and reliably to grid-connected systems. Anticipating the energy harnessed with prediction models is required to prevent the grid from any damage coming from every slight disturbance. In this direction, various architectures were suggested to predict the ambiguous behavior of meteorological data. Within this vein. Genetic al…
