病原体感染恢复概率（PIRP）与促炎性抗病原体物质（PIAPS）水平：建模和治疗策略
Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) Versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) Levels: Modelling and Therapeutic Strategies
摘要：
当前COVID-19疫情正在全球范围内迅速蔓延，如果失控，可能成为现代历史上最大的大流行性事件之一。似乎大多数SARS-CoV 2病毒感染导致的死亡主要是由于肺或多个器官的功能障碍或衰竭，这些功能障碍或衰竭可归因于宿主的免疫功能障碍，特别是炎症过度型疾病。在这篇简短的综述和研究中，提出了一个数学模型来关联宿主单位内的病原体感染恢复概率（PIRP）与促炎性抗病原体物质（PIAPS）水平，其中当PIAPS水平等于或接近病原体消除或清除开始时的PIAPS平衡水平时，表现出最大PIRP。基于该模型，可以设计和实施在正确的阶段或时机、使用正确类型的药剂（免疫刺激剂或免疫抑制剂）和正确剂量的合理或有效的治疗策略，预期其有效地实现最大PIRP或降低死亡率。
英文摘要：
Current CoVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly worldwide, and it may become one of the largest pandemic events in modern history if out of control. It appears most of the SARS-CoV2 virus infection resulted deaths are mainly due to dysfunctions or failures of the lung or multiple organs that could be attributed to hosts immunodysfunctions particularly hyperinflammatory type disorders. In this brief review and study, a math model is proposed to correlate the Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) levels within a host unit, where a maximum PIRP is exhibited when the PIAPS levels are equal to or around PIAPS equilibrium levels at the pathogen elimination or clearance onset. Based on this model, rational or effective therapeutic strategies at right stages or timing, with right type of agents (immuno-stimulators or immuno-suppressors), and right dosages, may be designed and implemented that are expected to effectively achieve maximum PIRP or reduce the mortality.
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