Approximate inference in complex probabilistic models such as deep Gaussian processes requires the optimisation of doubly stochastic objective functions. These objectives incorporate randomness both from mini-batch subsampling of the data and from Monte Carlo estimation of expectations. If the gradient variance is high, the stochastic optimisation problem becomes difficult with a slow rate of convergence. Control variates can be used to reduce the variance, but past approaches do not take into account how mini-batch stochasticity affects sampling stochasticity, resulting in sub-optimal variance reduction. We propose a new approach in which we use a recognition network to cheaply approximate the optimal control variate for each mini-batch, with no additional model gradient computations. We illustrate the properties of this proposal and test its performance on logistic regression and deep Gaussian processes.
Amortized Simulation-Based Inference in Generalized Bayes via Neural Posterior Estimation
Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom（英国牛津大学统计系）；Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand（新西兰奥克兰大学统计系）
Efficient low-variance gradient estimation enabled by the reparameterization trick (RT) has been essential to the success of variational autoencoders. Doubly-reparameterized gradients (DReGs) improve on the RT for multi-sample variational bounds by applying reparameterization a second time for an additional reduction in variance. Here, we develop two generalizations of the DReGs estimator and show that they can be used to train conditional and hierarchical VAEs on image modelling tasks more effectively. First, we extend the estimator to hierarchical models with several stochastic layers by sho…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the posterior distribution not only for one instance of data, but a distribution of data pertaining to a specific inverse problem. During inference, the neural network -- in our case a conditional normalizing flow -- provides posterior samples at virtually no cost. However, the accuracy of amortized variational inference relies on the availability of high-fidelit…
Samsung AI Center（三星人工智能中心）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
Variational autoencoder (VAE) is a very successful generative model whose key element is the so called amortized inference network, which can perform test time inference using a single feed forward pass. Unfortunately, this comes at the cost of degraded accuracy in posterior approximation, often underperforming the instance-wise variational optimization. Although the latest semi-amortized approaches mitigate the issue by performing a few variational optimization updates starting from the VAE's amortized inference output, they inherently suffer from computational overhead for inference at test …
StAD: Stein Amortized Divergence for Fast Likelihoods with Diffusion and Flow
Institute of Astronomy（天文研究所）；Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK（剑桥大学卡文迪许实验室，剑桥，英国）；Research Computing Services, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK（剑桥大学研究计算服务）；The Oskar Klein Centre, Department of Physics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE（斯德哥尔摩大学物理系奥斯卡·克莱因中心）；Cavendish Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK（剑桥大学物理系卡文迪许实验室）
Powerful ideas recently appeared in the literature are adjusted and combined to design improved samplers for Bayesian exponential random graph models. Different forms of adaptive Metropolis-Hastings proposals (vertical, horizontal and rectangular) are tested and combined with the Delayed rejection (DR) strategy with the aim of reducing the variance of the resulting Markov chain Monte Carlo estimators for a given computational time. In the examples treated in this paper the best combination, namely horizontal adaptation with delayed rejection, leads to a variance reduction that varies between 9…
Conditional neural control variates for variance reduction in Bayesian inverse problems
Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida（计算机科学系佛罗里达中央大学）；Department of Physics and Maryland Center for Fundamental Physics University of Maryland College Park（物理系马里兰根本物理中心马里兰大学学院公园分校）
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；MILA（蒙特利尔学习算法研究所）
Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discus…
Department of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A.（宾夕法尼亚大学计算机与信息科学系）；Hal c o g lu Data Science Institute, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, U.S.A.（加州大学圣地亚哥分校Hal c o g lu数据科学研究所）
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
We show that on-policy policy gradient (PG) and its variance reduction variants can be derived by taking finite difference of function evaluations supplied by estimators from the importance sampling (IS) family for off-policy evaluation (OPE). Starting from the doubly robust (DR) estimator (Jiang & Li, 2016), we provide a simple derivation of a very general and flexible form of PG, which subsumes the state-of-the-art variance reduction technique (Cheng et al., 2019) as its special case and immediately hints at further variance reduction opportunities overlooked by existing literature. We analy…
Although with progress in introducing auxiliary amortized inference models, learning discrete latent variable models is still challenging. In this paper, we show that the annoying difficulty of obtaining reliable stochastic gradients for the inference model and the drawback of indirectly optimizing the target log-likelihood can be gracefully addressed in a new method based on stochastic approximation (SA) theory of the Robbins-Monro type. Specifically, we propose to directly maximize the target log-likelihood and simultaneously minimize the inclusive divergence between the posterior and the in…
The Doubly Robust (DR) estimation of ATE can be carried out in 2 steps, where in the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the DR estimator. The model misspecification in the first step has led researchers to utilize Machine Learning algorithms instead of parametric algorithms. However, existence of strong confounders and/or Instrumental Variables (IVs) can lead the complex ML algorithms to provide perfect predictions for the treatment model which can violate the positivity assumption and elevate the variance of DR estimator…
NTT DATA Mathematical Systems Inc.（NTT DATA 数理系统公司）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）
In this paper, we develop a new accelerated stochastic gradient method for efficiently solving the convex regularized empirical risk minimization problem in mini-batch settings. The use of mini-batches is becoming a golden standard in the machine learning community, because mini-batch settings stabilize the gradient estimate and can easily make good use of parallel computing. The core of our proposed method is the incorporation of our new "double acceleration" technique and variance reduction technique. We theoretically analyze our proposed method and show that our method much improves the min…
Facebook AI Research（脸书人工智能研究院）；Deepmind（深度思维）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia（意大利理工学院）；University of Genova（热那亚大学）
Gaussian processes (GP) are one of the most successful frameworks to model uncertainty. However, GP optimization (e.g., GP-UCB) suffers from major scalability issues. Experimental time grows linearly with the number of evaluations, unless candidates are selected in batches (e.g., using GP-BUCB) and evaluated in parallel. Furthermore, computational cost is often prohibitive since algorithms such as GP-BUCB require a time at least quadratic in the number of dimensions and iterations to select each batch. In this paper, we introduce BBKB (Batch Budgeted Kernel Bandits), the first no-regret GP opt…
Tokyo Institute of Technology（东京工业大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Yahoo Japan Corporation（雅虎日本公司）；Yale University（耶鲁大学）
In real-world recommender systems and search engines, optimizing ranking decisions to present a ranked list of relevant items is critical. Off-policy evaluation (OPE) for ranking policies is thus gaining a growing interest because it enables performance estimation of new ranking policies using only logged data. Although OPE in contextual bandits has been studied extensively, its naive application to the ranking setting faces a critical variance issue due to the huge item space. To tackle this problem, previous studies introduce some assumptions on user behavior to make the combinatorial item s…
T-Brain AI Center（T-Brain人工智能中心）；SK telecom（SK电信）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Superb AI（卓越人工智能）
When training a machine learning model with observational data, it is often encountered that some values are systemically missing. Learning from the incomplete data in which the missingness depends on some covariates may lead to biased estimation of parameters and even harm the fairness of decision outcome. This paper proposes how to adjust the causal effect of covariates on the missingness when training models using stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Inspired by the design of doubly robust estimator and its theoretical property of double robustness, we introduce stochastic doubly robust gradi…
University of Texas at Austin（得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Infinite horizon off-policy policy evaluation is a highly challenging task due to the excessively large variance of typical importance sampling (IS) estimators. Recently, Liu et al. (2018a) proposed an approach that significantly reduces the variance of infinite-horizon off-policy evaluation by estimating the stationary density ratio, but at the cost of introducing potentially high biases due to the error in density ratio estimation. In this paper, we develop a bias-reduced augmentation of their method, which can take advantage of a learned value function to obtain higher accuracy. Our method …
CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Ecole Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；Université Pierre et Marie Curie（皮埃尔和玛丽·居里大学）
We introduce a doubly stochastic proximal gradient algorithm for optimizing a finite average of smooth convex functions, whose gradients depend on numerically expensive expectations. Our main motivation is the acceleration of the optimization of the regularized Cox partial-likelihood (the core model used in survival analysis), but our algorithm can be used in different settings as well. The proposed algorithm is doubly stochastic in the sense that gradient steps are done using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with variance reduction, where the inner expectations are approximated by a Monte-Ca…
UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL)（瑞士联邦理工学院（洛桑））
Several useful variance-reduced stochastic gradient algorithms, such as SVRG, SAGA, Finito, and SAG, have been proposed to minimize empirical risks with linear convergence properties to the exact minimizer. The existing convergence results assume uniform data sampling with replacement. However, it has been observed in related works that random reshuffling can deliver superior performance over uniform sampling and, yet, no formal proofs or guarantees of exact convergence exist for variance-reduced algorithms under random reshuffling. This paper makes two contributions. First, it resolves this o…
We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients through sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of estimating the stochastic gradients over multiple variational parameters into smaller sub-tasks so that each sub-task exploits intelligently the information coming from the most relevant part of the variational distribution. This is achieved by performing an exact expectation over the single random variable that mostly correlates with the variational paramete…
Yale University（耶鲁大学）；Yale University School of Medicine（耶鲁大学医学院）
A fundamental step in many data-analysis techniques is the construction of an affinity matrix describing similarities between data points. When the data points reside in Euclidean space, a widespread approach is to from an affinity matrix by the Gaussian kernel with pairwise distances, and to follow with a certain normalization (e.g. the row-stochastic normalization or its symmetric variant). We demonstrate that the doubly-stochastic normalization of the Gaussian kernel with zero main diagonal (i.e., no self loops) is robust to heteroskedastic noise. That is, the doubly-stochastic normalizatio…
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院）
A new amortized variance-reduced gradient (AVRG) algorithm was developed in \cite{ying2017convergence}, which has constant storage requirement in comparison to SAGA and balanced gradient computations in comparison to SVRG. One key advantage of the AVRG strategy is its amenability to decentralized implementations. In this work, we show how AVRG can be extended to the network case where multiple learning agents are assumed to be connected by a graph topology. In this scenario, each agent observes data that is spatially distributed and all agents are only allowed to communicate with direct neighb…
Google Brain（谷歌大脑）；New York University（纽约大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；DeepMind（深度思维）
Deep latent variable models have become a popular model choice due to the scalable learning algorithms introduced by (Kingma & Welling, 2013; Rezende et al., 2014). These approaches maximize a variational lower bound on the intractable log likelihood of the observed data. Burda et al. (2015) introduced a multi-sample variational bound, IWAE, that is at least as tight as the standard variational lower bound and becomes increasingly tight as the number of samples increases. Counterintuitively, the typical inference network gradient estimator for the IWAE bound performs poorly as the number of sa…
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
Addressing such diverse ends as safety alignment with human preferences, and the efficiency of learning, a growing line of reinforcement learning research focuses on risk functionals that depend on the entire distribution of returns. Recent work on \emph{off-policy risk assessment} (OPRA) for contextual bandits introduced consistent estimators for the target policy's CDF of returns along with finite sample guarantees that extend to (and hold simultaneously over) all risk. In this paper, we lift OPRA to Markov decision processes (MDPs), where importance sampling (IS) CDF estimators suffer high …
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
Asynchronous Q-learning aims to learn the optimal action-value function (or Q-function) of a Markov decision process (MDP), based on a single trajectory of Markovian samples induced by a behavior policy. Focusing on a $γ$-discounted MDP with state space $\mathcal{S}$ and action space $\mathcal{A}$, we demonstrate that the $\ell_{\infty}$-based sample complexity of classical asynchronous Q-learning --- namely, the number of samples needed to yield an entrywise $\varepsilon$-accurate estimate of the Q-function --- is at most on the order of $\frac{1}{μ_{\min}(1-γ)^5\varepsilon^2}+ \frac{t_{mix}}…
