区分扩口和非扩口活动区域：机器学习的观点
Distinguishing between Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions: A Machine Learning Perspective
摘要：
大规模的太阳爆发会严重影响空间天气，并破坏天基人类基础设施。有必要预测大规模的太阳爆发，这将使我们能够保护我们现代社会脆弱的基础设施。我们的目的是调查之间的差异，耀斑和非耀斑活动区。利用太阳动力学观测站日震磁成像仪的光球矢量磁图资料，研究了太阳表面光球磁参数的时间演化。我们建立了2010年至2017年太阳表面观测到的耀斑和非耀斑活动区数据库。我们训练的机器学习算法的时间演变，这些活跃的区域参数。最后，我们估计从这个机器学习算法获得的性能。我们发现耀斑活动区的总无符号磁通量、总无符号磁螺旋度、总无符号垂直电流和总光球磁能密度的强度都比非耀斑活动区高得多。耀斑活动区的这些磁参数是高度演化和复杂的。我们能够获得较好的预测能力与一个相对较高的值的真技能统计量（TSS）。我们还发现总无符号磁螺度和总无符号磁通量的时间演化对耀斑和非耀斑活动区有很强的区分能力。可以很好地区分耀斑活动区和非耀斑活动区。我们证实，没有一个共同的参数，可以区分所有的耀斑活动区从非耀斑之一。而前几个磁性参数即总无符号磁通量和总无符号磁螺度的时间演化具有很高的区分能力。
英文摘要：
Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern society. We aim to investigate the difference between flaring and non-flaring active regions. We use photospheric vector magnetogram data from Solar Dynamic Observatory's Helioseismic Magnetic Imager to study the time evolution of photospheric magnetic parameters on the solar surface. We build a database of flaring and non-flaring active region observed on the solar surface from the years 2010 to 2017. We train the machine learning algorithm by the time evolution of these active region parameters. Finally, we estimate the performance obtained from this machine learning algorithm. We find the strength of some magnetic parameters namely total unsigned magnetic flux, total unsigned magnetic helicity, total unsigned vertical current and total photospheric magnetic energy density in flaring active regions are much higher compared to the non-flaring ones. These magnetic parameters in the flaring active region are highly evolving and complex. We are able to obtain good forecasting capability with a relatively high value of true skill statistic (TSS). We also find that time evolution of total unsigned magnetic helicity and total unsigned magnetic flux have very high ability to distinguish flaring and non-flaring active regions. It is possible to distinguish flaring active region from the non-flaring one with good accuracy. We confirm that there is no single common parameter which can distinguish all flaring active regions from the non flaring one. However, time evolution of top few magnetic parameters namely total unsigned magnetic flux and total unsigned magnetic helicity have very high distinguishing capability.
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