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arXiv 2003.02599cs.AIcs.CL

An Incremental Explanation of Inference in Hybrid Bayesian Networks for Increasing Model Trustworthiness and Supporting Clinical Decision Making

School of Electronic Engineering & Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London(伦敦玛丽女王大学电子工程与计算机科学学院);Centre for Trauma Sciences, Blizard Institute, Queen Mary University of London(伦敦玛丽女王大学布利扎德研究所创伤科学中心);Royal London Hospital, Barts and The London NHS Trust(皇家伦敦医院);Academic Department of Military Surgery and Trauma, Royal Centre for Defence Medicine(皇家国防医学中心军事外科与创伤学术部)

Evangelia Kyrimi, Somayyeh Mossadegh, Nigel Tai, William Marsh

英文摘要:

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to hybrid BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted.

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