In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a second file includes responses measured on another, partially overlapping set of individuals. In the absence of error free direct identifiers like social security numbers, straightforward merging of separate files is not feasible, so that records must be linked using error-prone variables such as names, birth dates, and demographic characteristics. Typical practice in such situations generally follows a two-stage procedure: first link the two files using a probabilistic linkage technique, then make causal inferences with the linked dataset. This does not propagate uncertainty due to imperfect linkages to the causal inference, nor does it leverage relationships among the study variables to improve the quality of the linkages. We propose a hierarchical model for simultaneous Bayesian inference on probabilistic linkage and causal effects that addresses these deficiencies. Using simulation studies and theoretical arguments, we show the hierarchical model can improve the accuracy of estimated treatment effects, as well as the record linkages, compared to the two-stage modeling option. We illustrate the hierarchical model using a causal study of the effects of debit card possession on household spending.
We develop methodology for causal inference in observational studies when using propensity score subclassification on data constructed with probabilistic record linkage techniques. We focus on scenarios where covariates and binary treatment assignments are in one file and outcomes are in another file, and the goal is to estimate an additive treatment effect by merging the files. We assume that the files can be linked using variables common to both files, e.g., names or birth dates, but that links are subject to errors, e.g., due to reporting errors in the linking variables. We develop methodol…
The bipartite record linkage task consists of merging two disparate datafiles containing information on two overlapping sets of entities. This is non-trivial in the absence of unique identifiers and it is important for a wide variety of applications given that it needs to be solved whenever we have to combine information from different sources. Most statistical techniques currently used for record linkage are derived from a seminal paper by Fellegi and Sunter (1969). These techniques usually assume independence in the matching statuses of record pairs to derive estimation procedures and optima…
Multiple-systems or capture-recapture estimation are common techniques for population size estimation, particularly in the quantitative study of human rights violations. These methods rely on multiple samples from the population, along with the information of which individuals appear in which samples. The goal of record linkage techniques is to identify unique individuals across samples based on the information collected on them. Linkage decisions are subject to uncertainty when such information contains errors and missingness, and when different individuals have very similar characteristics. …
We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture--recapture setups, where the size of a finite population is the real object of interest. There are at least two important differences between the proposed model-based approach and the current practice in record linkage. First, the statistical model is built up on the actually observed categorical variables and no reduction (to 0--1 comparisons) of the available information tak…
Record linkage (de-duplication or entity resolution) is the process of merging noisy databases to remove duplicate entities. While record linkage removes duplicate entities from such databases, the downstream task is any inferential, predictive, or post-linkage task on the linked data. One goal of the downstream task is obtaining a larger reference data set, allowing one to perform more accurate statistical analyses. In addition, there is inherent record linkage uncertainty passed to the downstream task. Motivated by the above, we propose a generalized Bayesian record linkage method and consid…
By record linkage one joins records residing in separate files which are believed to be related to the same entity. In this paper we approach record linkage as a classification problem, and adapt the maximum entropy classification method in text mining to record linkage, both in the supervised and unsupervised settings of machine learning. The set of links will be chosen according to the associated uncertainty. On the one hand, our framework overcomes some persistent theoretical flaws of the classical approach pioneered by Fellegi and Sunter (1969); on the other hand, the proposed algorithm is…
Understanding the association between injury severity and patients' potential for recovery is crucial to providing better care for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Estimation of this relationship requires clinical information on injury severity, patient demographics, and healthcare utilization, which are often obtained from separate data sources. Because of privacy and confidentiality regulations, these data sources do not include unique identifiers to link records across data sources. Record linkage is a process to identify records that represent the same entity across data sources…
We propose an unsupervised approach for linking records across arbitrarily many files, while simultaneously detecting duplicate records within files. Our key innovation involves the representation of the pattern of links between records as a bipartite graph, in which records are directly linked to latent true individuals, and only indirectly linked to other records. This flexible representation of the linkage structure naturally allows us to estimate the attributes of the unique observable people in the population, calculate transitive linkage probabilities across records (and represent this v…
In theory, the probabilistic linkage method provides two distinct advantages over non-probabilistic methods, including minimal rates of linkage error and accurate measures of these rates for data users. However, implementations can fall short of these expectations either because the conditional independence assumption is made, or because a model with interactions is used but lacks the identification property. In official statistics, this is currently the main challenge to the automated production and use of linked data. To address this challenge, a new methodology is described for proper linka…
Researchers are often interested in linking individuals between two datasets that lack a common unique identifier. Matching procedures often struggle to match records with common names, birthplaces or other field values. Computational feasibility is also a challenge, particularly when linking large datasets. We develop a Bayesian method for automated probabilistic record linkage and show it recovers more than 50% more true matches, holding accuracy constant, than comparable methods in a matching of military recruitment data to the 1900 US Census for which expert-labelled matches are available.…
Probabilistic record linkage (PRL) is the process of determining which records in two databases correspond to the same underlying entity in the absence of a unique identifier. Bayesian solutions to this problem provide a powerful mechanism for propagating uncertainty due to uncertain links between records (via the posterior distribution). However, computational considerations severely limit the practical applicability of existing Bayesian approaches. We propose a new computational approach, providing both a fast algorithm for deriving point estimates of the linkage structure that properly acco…
Probabilistic record linkage (PRL) is the process of determining which records in two databases correspond to the same underlying entity in the absence of a unique identifier. Bayesian solutions to this problem provide a powerful mechanism for propagating uncertainty due to uncertain links between records (via the posterior distribution). However, computational considerations severely limit the practical applicability of existing Bayesian approaches. We propose a new computational approach, providing both a fast algorithm for deriving point estimates of the linkage structure that properly acco…
In database management, record linkage aims to identify multiple records that correspond to the same individual. This task can be treated as a clustering problem, in which a latent entity is associated with one or more noisy database records. However, in contrast to traditional clustering applications, a large number of clusters with a few observations per cluster is expected in this context. In this paper, we introduce a new class of prior distributions based on allelic partitions that is specially suited for the small cluster setting of record linkage. Our approach makes it straightforward t…
Record linkage involves merging records in large, noisy databases to remove duplicate entities. It has become an important area because of its widespread occurrence in bibliometrics, public health, official statistics production, political science, and beyond. Traditional linkage methods directly linking records to one another are computationally infeasible as the number of records grows. As a result, it is increasingly common for researchers to treat record linkage as a clustering task, in which each latent entity is associated with one or more noisy database records. We critically assess per…
Merging datafiles containing information on overlapping sets of entities is a challenging task in the absence of unique identifiers, and is further complicated when some entities are duplicated in the datafiles. Most approaches to this problem have focused on linking two files assumed to be free of duplicates, or on detecting which records in a single file are duplicates. However, it is common in practice to encounter scenarios that fit somewhere in between or beyond these two settings. We propose a Bayesian approach for the general setting of multifile record linkage and duplicate detection. …
Probabilistic record linkage, the task of merging two or more databases in the absence of a unique identifier, is a perennial and challenging problem. It is closely related to the problem of deduplicating a single database, which can be cast as linking a single database against itself. In both cases the number of possible links grows rapidly in the size of the databases under consideration, and in most applications it is necessary to first reduce the number of record pairs that will be compared. Spurred by practical considerations, a range of methods have been developed for this task. These me…
We present a probabilistic method for linking multiple datafiles. This task is not trivial in the absence of unique identifiers for the individuals recorded. This is a common scenario when linking census data to coverage measurement surveys for census coverage evaluation, and in general when multiple record-systems need to be integrated for posterior analysis. Our method generalizes the Fellegi-Sunter theory for linking records from two datafiles and its modern implementations. The multiple record linkage goal is to classify the record K-tuples coming from K datafiles according to the differen…
In record linkage (RL), or exact file matching, the goal is to identify the links between entities with information on two or more files. RL is an important activity in areas including counting the population, enhancing survey frames and data, and conducting epidemiological and follow-up studies. RL is challenging when files are very large, no accurate personal identification (ID) number is present on all files for all units, and some information is recorded with error. Without an unique ID number one must rely on comparisons of names, addresses, dates, and other information to find the links.…
Re-evaluating the impact of reduced malaria prevalence on birthweight in sub-Saharan Africa: A pair-of-pairs study via two-stage bipartite and non-bipartite matching
Cluster-based name embeddings reduce ethnic disparities in record linkage quality under realistic name corruption: evidence from the North Carolina Voter Registry
Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, University College London（伦敦大学学院大奥蒙德街儿童健康研究所）；Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington（华盛顿大学健康指标与评估研究所）
Probabilistic linkage with graphs: leveraging cluster structure to improve the accuracy of entity resolution at scale
University of the Witwatersrand（威特沃特斯兰德大学）；Boston University School of Public Health（波士顿大学公共卫生学院）；National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service（国家传染病研究所，国家卫生实验室服务）；Africa Health Research Institute（非洲健康研究所）
In Official Statistics, interest for data integration has been increasingly growing, due to the need of extracting information from different sources. However, the effects of these procedures on the validity of the resulting statistical analyses has been disregarded for a long time. In recent years, it has been largely recognized that linkage is not an error-free procedure and linkage errors, as false links and/or missed links, can invalidate the reliability of estimates in standard statistical models. In this paper we consider the general problem of making inference using data that have been …
In this paper, we study the impact of combining profile and network data in a de-duplication setting. We also assess the influence of a range of prior distributions on the linkage structure. Furthermore, we explore stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods as a faster alternative to obtain samples from the posterior distribution for network parameters. Our methodology is evaluated using the RLdata500 data, which is a popular dataset in the record linkage literature.
Entity resolution (record linkage or deduplication) is the process of identifying and linking duplicate records in databases. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian graphical approach for entity resolution that links records to latent entities, where the prior representation on the linkage structure is exchangeable. First, we adopt a flexible and tractable set of priors for the linkage structure, which corresponds to a special class of random partition models. Second, we propose a more realistic distortion model for categorical/discrete record attributes, which corrects a logical inconsistency w…
Whether the goal is to estimate the number of people that live in a congressional district, to estimate the number of individuals that have died in an armed conflict, or to disambiguate individual authors using bibliographic data, all these applications have a common theme - integrating information from multiple sources. Before such questions can be answered, databases must be cleaned and integrated in a systematic and accurate way, commonly known as record linkage, de-duplication, or entity resolution. In this article, we review motivational applications and seminal papers that have led to th…
Identification of matching records in multiple files can be a challenging and error-prone task. Linkage error can considerably affect subsequent statistical analysis based on the resulting linked file. Several recent papers have studied post-linkage linear regression analysis with the response variable in one file and the covariates in a second file from the perspective of the "Broken Sample Problem" and "Permuted Data". In this paper, we present an extension of this line of research to exponential family response given the assumption of a small to moderate number of mismatches. A method based…
Databases often contain corrupted, degraded, and noisy data with duplicate entries across and within each database. Such problems arise in citations, medical databases, genetics, human rights databases, and a variety of other applied settings. The target of statistical inference can be viewed as an unsupervised problem of determining the edges of a bipartite graph that links the observed records to unobserved latent entities. Bayesian approaches provide attractive benefits, naturally providing uncertainty quantification via posterior probabilities. We propose a novel record linkage approach ba…
Colorado State University（科罗拉多州立大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；Duke University（杜克大学）
Entity resolution (ER), comprising record linkage and de-duplication, is the process of merging noisy databases in the absence of unique identifiers to remove duplicate entities. One major challenge of analysis with linked data is identifying a representative record among determined matches to pass to an inferential or predictive task, referred to as the \emph{downstream task}. Additionally, incorporating uncertainty from ER in the downstream task is critical to ensure proper inference. To bridge the gap between ER and the downstream task in an analysis pipeline, we propose five methods to cho…
