世界贸易网络中的危机蔓延
Crisis contagion in the world trade network
摘要：
我们提出了一个全球危机传染模型的基础上，从联合国商品贸易统计数据库获得的世界贸易网络的谷歌矩阵分析。破产国家的比例表现出\textit{on-off}相变，由与国家的贸易差额相关的破产阈值$κ$控制。对$κ>κ_c$来说，危机的蔓延局限于不到10%的国家，而对$κ<κ_c$来说，危机是全球性的，大约90%的国家将破产。我们衡量危机在蔓延过程中的总成本。除了提供传染情景外，我们的模型还可以探索国家之间的结构性贸易依赖关系。从过去20年世界贸易交流中提取的不同网络来看，全球危机来自西方世界。特别是，全球危机的源头系统性地来自旧大陆和美洲（主要是美国和墨西哥）。除了澳大利亚的经济，中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国等亚洲国家的经济在危机蔓延期间是最后一个下降的。此外，金砖四国是世界贸易危机中最强大的国家之一。
英文摘要：
We present a model of worldwide crisis contagion based on the Google matrix analysis of the world trade network obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The fraction of bankrupted countries exhibits an \textit{on-off} phase transition governed by a bankruptcy threshold $κ$ related to the trade balance of the countries. For $κ>κ_c$, the contagion is circumscribed to less than 10\% of the countries, whereas, for $κ<κ_c$, the crisis is global with about 90\% of the countries going to bankruptcy. We measure the total cost of the crisis during the contagion process. In addition to providing contagion scenarios, our model allows to probe the structural trading dependencies between countries. For different networks extracted from the world trade exchanges of the last two decades, the global crisis comes from the Western world. In particular, the source of the global crisis is systematically the Old Continent and The Americas (mainly US and Mexico). Besides the economy of Australia, those of Asian countries, such as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, are the last to fall during the contagion. Also, the four BRIC are among the most robust countries to the world trade crisis.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
