Climate Change and Grain Production Fluctuations

Coarse-Grain Cluster Analysis of Tensors with Application to Climate Biome Identification

A tensor provides a concise way to codify the interdependence of complex data. Treating a tensor as a d-way array, each entry records the interaction between the different indices. Clustering provides a way to parse the complexity of the data into more readily understandable information. Clustering methods are heavily dependent on the algorithm of choice, as well as the chosen hyperparameters of the algorithm. However, their sensitivity to data scales is largely unknown. In this work, we apply the discrete wavelet transform to analyze the effects of coarse-graining on clustering tensor data. W…

气候变化对死亡率的影响：基于法国时间序列数据的温度效应外推

Impacts of Climate Change on Mortality: An extrapolation of temperature effects based on time series data in France

本文提出一种结合随机死亡率模型与气候流行病学模型的多群体死亡率预测方法，利用法国数据及IPCC情景评估了气候变化下温度波动对预期寿命和极端热浪额外死亡率的影响。

在气候模型中捕捉随机不确定性

Capturing Aleatoric Uncertainty in Climate Models

本文通过单模型大集合成员间差异揭示随机不确定性，利用广义加性模型分析其时空结构，并验证了该框架在伊比利亚半岛水平衡中的应用，展示了气候变异性与随机不确定性的联系。

气候政策不确定性的概率预测：宏观金融变量和谷歌搜索数据的作用

Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data

本文通过宏观金融变量和谷歌搜索数据预测气候政策不确定性，揭示了家庭金融脆弱性、房地产市场活动等关键因素的影响，并利用BSTS框架实现概率预测，为适应性气候政策提供依据。

Importance subsampling: improving power system planning under climate-based uncertainty

Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time, modelling renewable generation such as solar and wind requires high temporal resolution to capture fluctuations in output levels. In many realistic power system models, using long samples at high temporal resolution is computationally unfeasible. This paper introduces a novel subsampling approach, referred to as "importance subsampling", allowing the use of m…

Reddit上气候行动主义的因果建模

Causal Modeling of Climate Activism on Reddit

本文基于贝叶斯网络和随机变分推断构建因果模型，利用Reddit纵向数据探究用户参与气候行动主义的驱动因素，发现媒体曝光和直接互动显著影响参与，为媒体影响理论提供实证验证。