内生商业周期的同步性
Synchronization of endogenous business cycles
AI总结：
针对标准外生冲击模型难以匹配跨国商业周期高协同度的问题，本文提出含非线性内生动力学的需求驱动模型，结合特征分解理论阐释同步机制，经24国数据校准验证，内生周期与外生冲击结合可匹配实证协同度，支持周期部分源于非线性动力学的假说。
摘要：
商业周期往往在各国间协同变动。然而，将协同变动归因于外生冲击传导的标准模型难以生成与数据中水平相当的高协同度。本文研究通过某种形式的非线性动力学（极限环或混沌）内生生成商业周期的模型，这类模型因结合了冲击传导与内生动力学同步而能产生更强的协同变动。具体而言，我们研究一个需求驱动的简化形式模型：商业周期源于一国内部的策略互补性，并通过国际贸易关联实现各国周期振荡的同步。我们提出一种特征分解方法，用于探究非线性动力学、冲击传导与网络结构之间的相互作用，并借助该理论阐释同步机制。随后，我们利用24个国家的数据对模型进行校准，结果表明只有将内生商业周期与外生冲击相结合，才能匹配实证中的协同变动水平。尽管使用程式化模型存在局限性，但我们的结果支持了商业周期至少部分由潜在非线性动力学驱动的假说。
英文摘要：
Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider models that produce business cycles endogenously, through some form of non-linear dynamics -- limit cycles or chaos. These models generate stronger comovement, because they combine shock propagation with synchronization of endogenous dynamics. In particular, we study a demand-driven reduced-form model in which business cycles emerge from strategic complementarities within countries, synchronizing their oscillations through international trade linkages. We develop an eigendecomposition that explores the interplay between non-linear dynamics, shock propagation and network structure, and use this theory to understand the mechanisms of synchronization. Next, we calibrate the model to data on 24 countries and show that the empirical level of comovement can only be matched by combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks. Despite the limitations of using a stylized model, our results support the hypothesis that business cycles are at least in part caused by underlying non-linear dynamics.
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