Network-Based Prediction of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic Outbreak in the Chinese Province Hubei

中国湖北省 COVID-19 空间扩散的引力与自回归分析

Gravitational and Autoregressive Analysis Spatial Diffusion of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China

本文利用局部引力模型和空间自回归分析研究 COVID-19 从武汉向湖北扩散的规律，发现幂律衰减引力模型拟合良好，并揭示城市规模、距离及隔离措施对疫情扩散的重要影响。

Predictions of 2019-nCoV Transmission Ending via Comprehensive Methods

Since the SARS outbreak in 2003, a lot of predictive epidemiological models have been proposed. At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, termed as 2019-nCoV, has broken out and is propagating in China and the world. Here we propose a multi-model ordinary differential equation set neural network (MMODEs-NN) and model-free methods to predict the interprovincial transmissions in mainland China, especially those from Hubei Province. Compared with the previously proposed epidemiological models, the proposed network can simulate the transportations with the ODEs activation method, while the model-fr…

Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China

The COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused graving woes across the globe since first reported in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, China, December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been successfully curtailed by massive travel restrictions that put more than 900 million people housebound for more than two months since the lockdown of Wuhan on 23 January 2020 when other provinces in China followed suit. Here, we assess the impact of China's massive lockdowns and travel restrictions reflected by the changes in mobility patterns before and during the…

Is the epidemic spread related to GDP? Visualizing the distribution of COVID-19 in Chinese Mainland

In December 2019, COVID-19 were detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread to the whole Chinese mainland with the people during the Chinese Spring Festival Travel Rush. As of 19 February 2020, 74576 confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported in Chinese Mainland. What kind of cities have more confirmed cases, and is there any relationship between GDP and confirmed cases? In this study, we explored the relationship between the confirmed cases of COVID-19 and GDP at the prefectural-level, found a positive correlation between them. This finding warns high GDP are…

Forecasting the outcome and estimating the epidemic model parameters from the fatality time series in COVID-19 outbreaks

In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors in reporting. Detailed epidemic models may contain a large number of empirical parameters, which cannot be determined with sufficient accuracy. In this paper, we show that the cumulative number of deaths can be regarded as a master variable, and the parameters of the epidemic such as the basic reproduction number, the size of the susceptible population, and …